A unique situation for the real estate market. The supply far exceeds the demand. The excitement of the previous two years has been replaced by stagnation. The market is overloaded. Prices are gradually decreasing. However, the developers are trying to revive sales. To do this, they devise various promotions to attract elusive buyers. What is happening in the real estate market? Is it worth now to buy an apartment for yourself or for investment purposes? This and other questions were answered by the participants of the online conference “Falling prices in the real estate market: Time to invest?”, organized by the Komsomolskaya Pravda media group.
IMBALANCE IN THE MARKET
The construction market is stagnant. On the one hand, there is a strategic task for the State: to build at least 120 million square meters a year and thus increase the average supply of housing. On the other hand, there is the current market situation. When the demand has plummeted and the additional supply causes even more bias.
– The prices of the proposals of the developers are not lowered yet. But actual transaction prices are falling. Of course, a correction is inevitable. But it is still difficult to say how deep it will be, says Aleksey Skorobogach, Candidate of Economic Sciences, director of the KD consulting analytical center.
According to him, the market will adapt to current realities. In particular, developers will gradually abandon luxury projects in favor of standard projects and small apartments. Moreover, in the coming years, the market will develop only in megacities (where there is effective demand) and in regions where extremely favorable mortgage rates will be maintained (for example, the Far Eastern Federal District).
It is noteworthy that in November the real estate market even showed a slight increase. But, according to experts, this is a weak reason for optimism. First, he played the deferred lawsuit. Second, the growth occurred only on a month-over-month basis, that is, only compared to the low base of October, when there were no sales. Third, the growth in demand was associated with the possible end of the “state-supported” preferential mortgage program.
– The maximum discounts are given for individual lots and can reach 30%. But you have to understand that you can get good discounts if you come to the market with real money and do not plan to use a mortgage. Or on thin liquid objects. According to our estimates, the average discount is now around 8%, says Victoria Kiryukhina, Senior Expert at CIAN-Analytics.
MORTGAGE – RATES STILL AVAILABLE
Preferential mortgage programs have led to the fact that the proportion of transactions concluded with the help of credit funds has increased significantly. On average, it is now around 80%.
– There are developers who have this participation higher than 90%. Usually this situation is typical for the mass housing segment, adds Irina Kachurina, vice president and director of partner mortgage programs at VTB.
According to her, by the end of the year, the volume of housing loans is projected at the level of 4.6-4.7 trillion rubles (in 2021 it was 5.6 trillion). At the same time, there is a noteworthy nuance: Due to lower second home prices, customers are increasingly looking for turnkey properties, even despite relatively high loan rates (an average of 11% per year). instead of the 6-7% preferential). ).
– High school has become more attractive. The prices are lower and you can get in right now,” says Andrey Kolchanov, director of the MLSD consultancy.
– Now we issue almost 60% of mortgages for the purchase of apartments on the secondary market. Tariffs, of course, are higher than preferential, but still affordable, – explains Irina Kachurina.
INSURANCE WILL SAVE YOUR APARTMENT
At the same time, if apartment insurance is required for a mortgage, then when buying cash, this is a voluntary item. It often turns out that the client spends a large amount on the purchase of real estate and at the same time saves on a property insurance policy.
– At those times, the population wants to save on the policy. Although the consequences of such savings can be sad. It seems to me that in the current conditions it is definitely not worth waiting for maybe a traditional Russian. Insurance of property of individuals is the protection of assets, their real values, – says Boris Novikov, Director of the Department of General Underwriting and Methodology of JSC IC RSHB-Insurance.
According to him, property insurance rates are negligible. For example, on average, protecting an apartment costs between 0.15 and 0.2% of its value, and a private house costs between 0.2 and 0.4%.
– It seems to me that our insurance culture has not yet been fully formed. However, those who take care of their property and want to avoid unforeseen expenses, especially at the present time, should insure their property, explains Boris Novikov.
For example, the same mortgage insurance protects only the interests of the bank, for the amount of the client’s debt. Therefore, even with such a mandatory policy, it is advisable to insure the apartment voluntarily. For example, at least protect the finish from the most common risks – flood, fire and civil liability against third parties (if you do not flood, but do).
CREATIVE OFFERS FROM DEVELOPERS
Against the background of an imbalance between supply and demand, developers began to show miracles of creativity. They come with various promotions and joint programs with banks. One of the most common is the “zero” mortgage.
– The subsidized mortgage is the trend this year. In the total volume of transactions, about 70-80% is needed. We see that the client for the most part stopped looking at the price of the object, and looks at the monthly payment. If he feels comfortable, it suits him,-explains Valery Kochetkov, director of the new construction department of INCOM-Realty.
Another sign of the times. The growth of both the average size of the loan and the term of its repayment, by approximately 20%. This is due to several factors. First of all, with the fact that prices are still higher than a year ago. So you have to borrow more. Secondly, due to the fact that more and more customers use a “zero” mortgage, in which 20-30% is added to the market value of the object. This is the amount the buyer pays upfront in order to obtain a mortgage with close to zero interest. In this case, there is also little point in rushing to pay off the loan ahead of schedule. This turns out to be economically meaningless. It’s easier to pay on schedule and save money on deposit at the same time. Hence the increase in both the size of the loan and the term.
TRICK QUESTION?
What to do: buy or wait
According to experts, the offer is now really great. The volume of unsold apartments is growing. But this is an inertial process. Over time, input volumes will gradually decrease. At some point, this should equalize the equilibrium in the market. In the short term, prices have an incentive to go down. However, when it comes to improving housing conditions, waiting for a better time is not always the right strategy.
– If you need an apartment for yourself, then you need to improve living conditions. The quality of our life depends on it. If it is to invest, then you can wait here, – says Alexei Skorobogach.
– It is not worth running and taking out a mortgage just because of a low rate. But if you already wanted to buy a house and found a suitable option, then consider the possibility of a zero rate. There may not be such a program in the near future, adds Victoria Kiryukhina.
“The train with a cheap mortgage is leaving, but if you are going to get on it, it is better to do it with a cool head and not make emotional purchases,” warns Valery Kochetkov.
– We must live now. If there is a need to improve living conditions, then you should take a mortgage. Yes, today the market lending rates have risen slightly, but we must not forget that when the situation on the market stabilizes, mortgages can be refinanced and thereby reduce the payment, adds Irina Kachurina.
– Well, if you bought an apartment and received it as property, it must be insured. This is the protection of their own financial interests, which is especially important in times of crisis”, summarizes Boris Novikov.
