Juan Fernández-Aceytuno, CEO of Sociedad de Tasación, has analyzed this Wednesday the real estate market and its expectations for 2023, a year that will be marked by the rise in interest rates and inflation. For the counselor, these two factors will act as the biggest determining factor in the real estate sector. In addition, both variables will configure the start of a new real estate cycle, since the previous one gave “signs of exhaustion”, after the coronavirus forced its duration to be extended.
Fernández-Aceytuno notes that “the market has changed” and foresees different behaviors in used housing and in new construction. In the case of the first, it is not ruled out that prices can be adjusted to close operations, although the ability of the parties to negotiate. The Appraisal Society delegate believes that the demand will continue, although the increase in mortgage prices will determine the choice of offer.
However, in new housing, prices are expected to remain the same or even continue to rise, due to the fact that the shortage of supply means that the bargaining power is less. Sociedad de Tasación expects developers to continue bringing their product to the market, but gradually.
“There is very little ‘stock’ of new housing”
Fernández-Aceytuno has collected that “There is very little ‘stock’ of new housing and the absorption time is less and less. New housing in Madrid, Barcelona or Malaga has disappeared from the market after 15 days. There is not much time to decide whether you buy or not.”
Despite the tightening of mortgage conditions, Sociedad de Tasación removes doubts about delinquency and a situation like that of 2007, and ensures that in Spain the portfolios have “absolutely premium quality”. Fernández-Aceytuno guarantees that “delinquency is neither expected” and the key to this is employment, which “is working well.”
The increase in the cost of mortgages affects the national buyer more than the foreigner, especially the non-EU investor. This foreign buyer profile usually corresponds to investment funds that opt for the BTR (Build-to-Rent) product, to put up for rent. Sociedad de Tasación explains that the BTR segment continues to be “marginal”, although they value that it “makes its way” in the face of the “obvious lack of rental housing in this country”.
The 2% limit
The CEO of Sociedad de Tasación has also referred to the 2% limitation on rental income, and has called for a “sensible and moderate position”, since homeowners will continue to offer on the market. “In this scenario, no one is going to stop putting their house up for rent because they are limited to 2%,” says Fernández-Aceytuno.
On the other hand, the counselor has acknowledged that he understands the critical voices with this measure, although at the same time he has warned that the rents must also be adapted to “access to housing by the tenant”. However, for the Appraisal Society, the main problem, both in renting and buying, are salaries, especially among the youngest, who are the ones who are still far from the real estate market.
“Spain has a tremendous deficit that it has endured for many years. It is unacceptable that a country like Spain does not have a way so that, little by little, young people can access the housing market, for rent and ownership,” he explained. Fernande-Aceytuno. In this sense, it has also advocated developing anti-cyclical policies, with plans for access to housing, youth mortgages and improvement of the energy efficiency of buildings, since 50% of the Spanish park is over 40 years old and less than 20% of the park is efficient in energy terms.