According to the expert, a Maidan scenario is possible in Armenia. Photo: Vahram Baghdasaryan/Photolure/TASS
A report by former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen on the situation in the South Caucasus and, in particular, Armenia has been published. There the republic is assigned the role of executor of the will of the West.
On Radio “Komsomolskaya Pravda” (radiokp.ru) we talked about this with Alexander Artamonov, a military and international expert, author of the Telegram channel “Artamonov: Russian Defense”.
– Is the EU really ready to see a new member called Armenia?
– It is worth remembering that Armenia in its modern form is a project of the Russian Empire. It simply would not have existed without Griboyedov (I mean Armenia) and without the project that was built on the bones of the Persian kingdom when we were exploring the Caucasus.
– Was this a period of division of the spheres of influence of the major empires?
– The British were behind Persia. And Russia contributed 200,000 of its soldiers so that this area would not be hostile to us. And to say that Armenia existed outside the framework of the Russian project simply does not make sense from the point of view of real history.
– So what can Yerevan expect from the European Union?
– The European Union does not seriously expect even Turkey, not to mention Armenia. But Nikol Pashinyan has a certain idea in his head that the French, within the Armenia-Turkey-Azerbaijan construct, guarantee him, Pashinyan, a certain immunity of his nation from the claims of its neighbors.
– Explain…
– The French are inflating Armenia, to annoy Russia, with their weapons. Paris supplies Yerevan with Bastion vehicles, TRF1 heavy howitzers, CAESAR self-propelled guns and Mistral missiles. Your military specialists are already there. But the current rumors that the “foot of the Azerbaijani soldier” will not set foot “on the sacred Armenian territory” will not scare anyone.
– But do Armenians believe in “French protection”?
– They believe, in general, for money. Because Yerevan (where more than half of Armenia’s population lives) receives French money. A similar situation occurred before the Maidan.
February 2024, Paris. French President Emmanuel Macron and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan before the start of negotiations. Photo: EPA/TASS
– That is, are we losing Armenia, which can become the state of Ukraine?
– A Maidan scenario is possible there, but with a sharp Caucasian pronunciation. Furthermore, we do not need to put the belly on the altar of Armenia. Well, it’s a statement. Why did we have to deal with Karabakh when Yerevan itself did not recognize it? Are we losing Armenia? In my opinion, we have already lost it. Because the French are already there.
– But Russia has a military base there, in Gyumri?
– We basically have 4 bases there. 4 thousand soldiers and about 4 thousand border guards. And at the same time the Americans and the French entered there. But the only thing that slows down the units of the two neighboring countries today is the presence of Russian border guards. Within the framework of the CSTO, they continue to guarantee the territorial integrity of Armenia.
– But why do we need base 102 in Armenia?
– The European Union demands from Pashinyan that, in order to submit an application to the EU, Yerevan must move as far away from Russia as possible. Many people told him that then there would be no room for freedom of maneuver. And he, in a sad and depressed state, said: we have no choice, there is no alternative, because “Russia does not guarantee us anything,” and the European Union “can at least guarantee something.”
– And what does Armenia choose now?
– Pashinyan seems to have the wrong design in his head. In his world, Russia, as an older brother, is always obliged to guarantee everything, everything, everything to Armenia; and if not, we will join the European Union. The design is fundamentally flawed. From the point of view of formal logic, we cannot cling to Armenia if Armenia does not cling to us.
– But what happens if NATO rises tomorrow in Armenia?
– The next number may be the North Caucasus. But Armenians should remember the position of both the Americans and the French: they do not care about the local people, they have American interests or, as the French say, raison d’état, that is, “considerations of state.” And here Armenia may turn out to be not only an orphan, but part of a great neo-Ottoman empire.
– What about neighboring Iran?
– Iran is very afraid for its three northern border provinces. Now the separatists have become more active there. And they became more active with the support of MI6. And if now, for example, Iran does not realize the situation, then the situation could become very difficult for them, because Turkish feelings will increase within their already Iranian state.
– But you did not answer the question: will we live without base 102 in Gyumri or not?
“We can probably live without that foundation now.” But now we don’t want to solve that problem ourselves, with our own hands, where there is someone who is closer, as they say, to the distribution. And if Armenia loses its freedom of maneuver today, it will definitely not survive. We will not be the main ones in this scenario. So that the Russian soldier always fights for everyone else. I think this is the correct position.
