The national economy slows down in the second half of the year and will maintain weaker growth, at least, until June of next year. This is the panorama that the European Commission draws for Spain in its Summer Forecasts, which it made public this Monday, and with which it revises upwards its previous calculations for this year, which it announced last spring and which had already been left behind. updated. Brussels raises its estimate of GDP by three tenths to 2.2%, a forecast more in line with that of the acting Government (+2.1%) and with the updates recently made by public bodies such as the Bank of Spain ( +2.3%), the International Monetary Fund (+2.5%) or organizations such as the OECD (+2.1%), which includes the most developed economies.
In the case of inflation, the Executive headed by Úrsula von der Leyen estimates that prices will rise four tenths less on average this year, to 3.6%. The economic expansion is expected to be “more moderate” in the second half due to less momentum in the tourism sector, weaker economic activity in the main trading partners (the large economies of the Eurozone), the impact of stronger financial conditions tight on aggregate demand due to rising interest rates and weaker dynamics in the labor market. To this appreciation, the report adds that “the weakening of economic activity expected towards the end of the year will extend at least until the first half of 2024”.
The purchasing power of households, which is expected to benefit from the sustained easing of inflation, together with the increase in nominal wages, “will partially mitigate the obstacles to private consumption.” In addition, the lower indebtedness of the private sector achieved in recent years and the resilience of the banking sector will contribute to mitigating financial risks, while the implementation of the Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan is expected to continue supporting the rise in investment during the forecast horizon.
