The research service of the CaixaBank banking entity predicts that household consumption will continue to ‘pull’ the Spanish economy over the next year, driven by the slowdown in inflation and the probable drop in interest rates.
“Next year it is likely that consumption will be consolidated as the main support of the Spanish economy,” CaixaBank Research stated in the monthly report of this service corresponding to the month of November and reported by Efe.
According to CaixaBank Research’s real-time consumption monitor, in-person and online spending made with CaixaBank cards and withdrawals grew by 3.8% year-on-year in October, which represents “a notable pace of progress”, although somewhat lower than the 5.5% registered in the third quarter of the year.
Analysis of expense items
If the different spending items are analyzed, spending on essential goods continues with a “solid” growth of 10%, while spending on leisure and restaurants increases “strongly.”
However, retail spending appears weaker, although CaixaBank’s research service attributes this largely to the fact that citizens have postponed many purchases due to the high autumn temperatures. “Now that the cold finally seems to be arriving, it is possible that a normalization will be observed,” he noted.
Thus, the report points out that, despite the difficulties of the moment, “the financial position of families is less stressed than expected a few quarters ago.” Regarding the GDP growth forecast, CaixaBank Research reaffirms its calculation that 2023 will end with an average growth of 2.4% and that in 2024 it will be 1.4%.
