You can try to send up to 10% of your savings to gold
Photo: Viktor GUSEYNOV
Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the Market Research Center of the Higher School of Economics, told Komsomolskaya Pravda what surprises the coming year 2023 holds for us in the economy and how to put away our savings.
– Georgy Vladimirovich, what event can be called the main one in the last year?
– The main event is, of course, a special operation in Ukraine. And if we talk about long-term trends, you would notice a sharp drop in global economic growth, this process started during the pandemic and continues now. This has affected all countries. All governments, in order to help people and businesses, have printed a large amount of money for which no goods or services were produced. Naturally, this led to inflation, real income began to fall everywhere, both among economic agents and among the population.
– Do you remember something good from last year?
– It is difficult to talk about the successes of such a difficult year, but the World Cup in Qatar can certainly be mentioned among them. Everything turned out very well and spectacularly, practically without excesses and provocations, the whole world rejoiced at such a brilliant event.
– And in the economy?
– As an unconditional positive, one can point to the way in which Russia withstood the pressure of harsh sanctions. In April, the Ministry of Economic Development presented an annual forecast that our economy would collapse by 8-10%, or even 12% (according to the basic scenario of the socio-economic development forecast, the economy was supposed to fall in 2022 in 8.8%, according to the conservative – 12.4%, – Ed.). But you see, this did not happen, the drop at the end of the year is about 3%. The Russian economy has shown stability, which is good. But on the other hand, it is completely incomprehensible how one can be so wrong, giving forecasts so at odds with reality.
– What phenomena will we have to face in the coming year?
– Well, if not a crisis similar to 2008-2009, then a deep recession (a decrease in production, a slowdown in economic growth, – Ed.) may come in the world economy. According to the forecasts of the Central Bank, inflation in Russia will be 5-7%. Now that the dollar has begun to strengthen considerably, I do not think that this will lead to any serious cataclysm, but the exchange rate will reach the level of 75-77 rubles to the dollar, and possibly up to 80 rubles. If we take into account that the strengthening of the dollar by 10 rubles adds about 1% to inflation, then we must add another 2% to that 7% that the Central Bank forecasts, I think this will be close to the real value.
At the beginning of the year, the economy may continue to decline, but then, thanks to import substitution and the reorientation of logistics from west to east, business may rise. But there is another problem: we are also in a deep demographic hole. We have reduced the number of employed people. Young people leave or leave to participate in NWO, and the generation of 20-30 years is the category most receptive to innovation, people who work more productively. We must not forget that GDP is created by people, so this year investments in human capital are needed.
– Representatives of which professions will be especially valuable?
– People with a high level of knowledge will be valued. And it doesn’t matter in what area: a metallurgist, an IT specialist, a shoe manufacturer. The main thing is that a person is competent in his business, then he will not be lost in life and will have a good income.
– What would you advise to invest the earned rubles?
– It depends on the amount of capital and the level of financial knowledge. If you are not a professional investor, it is better not to go to the stock market, but to engage in ordinary bank deposits. Another available tool is a currency, it is insurance against inflation (now yuan deposits are gaining special popularity, – Ed.) Well, in addition to this, you can try to send up to 10% of your savings to gold and a little , so as not to risk (no more than 3% of savings) – to cryptocurrency.
