The upward revisions of the growth of the Spanish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) begin. The first comes from the General Council of Economists (CGE), which has raised its estimates for 2022 by three tenths, to 4.4%, and has also revised those for 2023 upwards by two tenths to 1%. The President of the Government Pedro Sánchez more advanced. Díaz before the Ministry of Economic Affairs highlighted that the INE had revised upward the interannual growth of the first three quarters. Thus, the GDP advanced by 7%, 7.6% and 4.4%, respectively, “maintaining the strong rate of recovery.”
Now, according to the latest ‘Financial Observatory of the General Council of Economists’, Spain is dodging the recession, although growth has slowed down in 2022 compared to 2021. of the first two quarters and, anticipating that growth in the fourth quarter remain at a level similar to the third quarter.
“It seems that, despite the change in the situation, the second half of 2022 is turning out better than expected, avoiding the recession, even though growth has slowed down compared to 2021,” the economists point out in their report. As for prices, despite the moderation of the inflation rate, which stood at 5.8% in the interannual rate in December, core inflation has noted a point to 6.9% in the interannual rate.
This structural component of underlying inflation causes the General Council of Economists to increase its forecast for the inflation rate for 2023 to 5%, one point more than previously estimated. In 2022, economists expect the average CPI to be between 8% and 8.2%.
Regarding the labor market, the CGE points out that employment has performed well to date, with the number of unemployed remaining below three million since July, which means that it maintains its forecast for the unemployment rate. at 12.7% in 2022, and that it could increase to 12.9% in 2023 due to lower growth expectations for the economy in the coming year.
Regarding the public deficit, the current forecasts of 4.6% and 4.5% for 2022 and 2023, respectively, are maintained. Regarding public debt, economists maintain their forecast for 2022 at 113.9% and anticipate that in 2023 it will be somewhat higher, around 114.3%.