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Einstein “seismic” and the precursors of earthquakes. Why science for many years has not learned to predict underground impacts KXan 36 Daily News

Date: March 28, 2024 Time: 20:35:09

Could some seismic weapon have caused the earthquake in Turkey? How is the moon capable of provoking an underground attack? Why don’t scientists believe 600 earthquake omens? The RG correspondent talks about this with the head of the seismic hazard laboratory of the Institute of Earth Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Alexei Zavyalov.

Aleksey Dmitrievich, the earthquake in Turkey gave rise to a flurry of very diverse information, including hypotheses and versions about the cause of the disaster. Let’s evaluate some of the “strongest”. Naturally, there were no conspiracy theories. For example, that the Americans withdrew the consulates from Turkey in advance and then used seismic weapons. We are talking about the famous HAARP project, which is remembered as soon as something extreme happens on the planet with the climate, with the ozone layer, with seismicity.

Alexey Zavyalov: The energy of the main shock of the earthquake in Turkey can be estimated at 10 to the power of 16-17 J. The energy is huge! An explosion of an atomic bomb with a power of 20 Kt releases energy of the order of 10 to the 14th power of J, and an explosion of a hydrogen bomb of 20 Mt – 10 to the 17th power of J. But today, the explosions of such power will definitely be recorded by all monitoring systems in the world. There are no other sources to generate such energy.

By the way, only 5-10 percent of the energy from an underground strike is converted into seismic waves, the rest is heated.

And even less, in the media, among the reasons, they name, for example, the gravitational forces of the Moon, and Chinese scientists believe that the slowdown in the rotation of the Earth’s core, and possibly even a change in its direction, has the blame

Alexey Zavyalov: The Moon’s gravity can work, but only under certain conditions. Here it is necessary to remember how earthquakes occur. Tectonic plates floating in the liquid mantle can drag, move against each other, and lock. In this case, their movement stops and enormous tensions accumulate in these adhesion zones. But it is not at all necessary that it necessarily turn into an earthquake. For a push, the last drop may not be enough. This situation can last as long as you want. And under certain conditions, the moon’s gravity can be the last straw, the trigger that will trigger a powerful earthquake. Let me emphasize that this is nothing new.

Regarding the influence of changes in the rotation speed of the Earth’s core, this phenomenon has been known for a long time. No connection between him and the earthquakes has yet been established.

After each catastrophic earthquake, many are stumped. Here, apparently, there were previous tremors, tremors of moderate strength. Isn’t that a reason to give SOS? There are many more precursors. Can’t scientists classify them, compile a kind of “Mendeleev table” of precursors, and on this basis predict strong underground impacts?

Alexey Zavyalov: Yes, the database of precursors is huge, there are more than 600 of them. But the problem is that they are all unreliable. None of them guarantees an unambiguous result. Let’s say you see an increase in the concentration of radon in the wells, it seems that you need to raise the alarm, relocate people, but nothing happens. And after a while, the growth of radon is observed again, but this time, the strongest impulse. Who would dare deport hundreds of thousands of people on such a shaky footing? The situation is similar with previous tremors, which represent only a small percentage of the total number of earthquakes. Statistics show that they often generate false alerts.

However, the Chinese in 1975 managed to predict a strong earthquake in advance.

Alexey Zavyalov: We did, but this is one of the few well-described and successful forecasts based on precursors. Then, in one of the regions of the country, scientists noticed that the groundwater level had changed greatly, and in February, when it was cold, snakes suddenly appeared in large numbers and crawled out of their holes. Based on these signs, an earthquake was predicted. People left their houses at night for several weeks. In fact, the push did happen, and with virtually no casualties. This time we were lucky, because the herald might not work, as it did in the vast majority of cases. As they say, coincidence. Unfortunately, while science can predict the probability of an earthquake for 5 to 7 years, it is powerless to give a short-term forecast for a month, let alone a day.

Photo: Infographic “RG” / Anton Perepletchikov / Yuri Medvedev

Here they mentioned the snakes that participated in the forecast. But there was also a famous story with a dog. He literally pulled the owner out of the house and saved him during the strongest earthquake in Ashgabat. So maybe bet on several living heralds? After all, the miners took canaries with them, which alerted them to the appearance of dangerous methane.

Alexey Zavyalov: If everything were so obvious, then “seismic canaries” lived in the houses of seismically dangerous areas for a long time. Here is such a situation. On the one hand, examples of abnormal animal behavior are known before the 1927 Crimean earthquakes and the Ashgabat earthquake, but none of it was noted before the Spitak and Neftegorsk earthquakes. In general, there are a lot of stories about the unusual behavior of animals, but everything is at the level of rumors.

I know that in the 70s a special expedition worked in Tajikistan, where they studied various precursors, including biological ones – the unusual behavior of living organisms. But reasoned evidence could not be obtained, some kind of regularity, on the basis of which it is possible to make predictions with a high probability.

I read that in the 60-70s of the last century, scientists were sure that they could understand the logic of seismic. A research boom began in the world, a lot of money was invested, special testing grounds were created. However, the task turned out to be more difficult than expected. More than 50 years have passed since then, science has made a lot of progress in various directions, for example, artificial intelligence is already making the most complex diagnostics, bankruptcy prediction, weather prediction, and earthquakes remain a mystery. No precise prediction is available for science. What’s happening? After all, a huge amount of material has accumulated over the years? Or is it not enough? Something missing?

Alexey Zavialov: Good question. I would divide it into two parts. In fact, the volume of various data on earthquakes and their precursors is enormous. Based on them, we build seismic maps, which indicate that in this or that area over the next few decades, earthquakes may occur with this or that probability, the shaking of which will reach a certain level. Builders must take these forecasts into account in their projects and build buildings with greater stability.

Now, why, having such a large database, is it not possible to predict strong crashes with an accuracy of up to a month, let alone a day? Unfortunately, even with vast material, science has yet to discover the physical processes that generate earthquakes. Apparently, a person is needed to look at this whole picture from an unexpected angle and find a solution to this very old problem.

We need someone to look at this whole picture from an unexpected angle and find a solution to this age-old problem.

How did Einstein once see the theory of relativity in a large number of physical theories and experiments?

Alexey Zavyalov: I agree, obviously, a “seismic” Einstein is required.

By the way, after almost every strong earthquake, a message appears that such and such a scientist predicted it. So this time, the media wrote that Dutch seismologist Frank Huberbits warned on February 3 that there would be a magnitude 7.5 shock in this region of Turkey. Maybe the seismic Einstein has already appeared?

Alexey Zavialov: I don’t think so! Let’s wait and see… Every year on Earth, on average, there are 16-18 earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7. Let me remind you that the magnitude of the main shock of the Turkey earthquake is estimated at 7.8. Therefore, if this colleague’s predictions bear out a bit more, then his research should be carefully scrutinized.

File “RG”

Why do earthquakes occur?

At the center of the Earth is the core, surrounded by a hot liquid mantle. The uppermost layer, the crust, consists of lithospheric plates. At the moment, scientists know about large, dozens of medium plates and a huge number of small plates. They do not stay still, but are constantly moving, bumping into each other.

When one plate pushes against another, enormous tension builds up between them. But it cannot accumulate forever: there is a change and a “discharge” of tension – an earthquake.

Most earthquake sources occur at a depth of 30 to 40 km below the Earth’s surface.

The most active zones are the Pacific belt, which stretches along almost the entire coast of the Pacific Ocean (about 90% of all earthquakes), and the Alpine belt, from Indonesia to the Mediterranean Sea (5-6 % of all earthquakes).

20% of the territory of Russia is considered seismically active: Kamchatka, Sakhalin, the Kuril Islands, the Baikal region, the Irkutsk region, the Republic of Buryatia, Yakutia, the Caucasus, the coasts of the Black and Caspian seas.

About 5 percent of these areas are extremely dangerous: tremors often occur there, triggering earthquakes of 8 to 10 magnitude. Approximately 20 million people live in dangerous areas.

The most destructive earthquake in Russia in the last 100 years occurred on Sakhalin Island in 1995. In one of the villages with a population of 3,197 people, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.6 claimed 2,040 lives.

By the way

The five most powerful earthquakes in history

During the year on the planet fix:

1 catastrophic earthquake – magnitude greater than 8 points; 10-20 very strong – from 7 to 8 points; 100-120 strong – from 6 to 7; 800-1000 moderate – from 5 to 6; 6000-6200 lungs – from 4 to 5; 40-50 thousand weak – from 3 to 4. Every day 1000-8000 very weak – less than 3 points.

The most powerful earthquakes were recorded in Chile (1960, magnitude 9.5), Indonesia (2004, 9.3), USA (1964, 9.2), Japan (2011, 9.1), Kuriles (1952 , 9.0).

Earthquakes are considered the worst in history: in 1556, 830 thousand people died in China, 1976, China – 242 thousand, 525, Byzantium – 250 thousand, 1920, China – 240 thousand, 2004, Indonesia – 230 thousand.

* This website provides news content gathered from various internet sources. It is crucial to understand that we are not responsible for the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented Read More

Hansen Taylor
Hansen Taylor
Hansen Taylor is a full-time editor for ePrimefeed covering sports and movie news.
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