There are barely six weeks left until Sunday May 28th arrives and we all clear up our doubts… or not, what would the ineffable Mariano Rajoy say. One of the big questions, in addition to the result itself, is discerning whether what will happen in the regional and municipal elections of 28-M is a good thermometer to equip what can happen seven months later, that is, at the end of 2023 with the general elections, which will be disputed mainly by Pedro Sánchez and Alberto Núñez Feijóo. According to some recent data such as the Aznar or Zapatero elections, the regional plebiscites were indicative -although not determinative- of what was going to happen in the following general elections, although not all the votes clearly reflect this enciavalence or correspond of votes, but at least it was possible to extrapolate the electoral tendency of the results.
Perhaps for this reason, these days we have heard and seen Núñez Feijóo put on the band-aid before the wound: “Sánchez will endure 28-M better than in the general ones”, he sentenced this Monday before the National Board of Directors of the PP, the highest body between party congresses. Why did he do it? For several reasons. The first is obvious, no one would say otherwise. The second, tries to stop a possible euphoria in the party that in the end becomes a defeat if the PP does not sweep or does not win with a wide advantage, something that obviously will not do much to improve its results in the autonomies in which it participates. , and in which, except for Madrid and Murcia, the rest are currently in the hands of socialists or other parties. Conquering certain new places is an arduous battle, although as soon as Feijóo succeeds, he will be able to assess and extrapolate his future with greater optimism for the generals. In addition, in Catalonia, Galicia, Andalusia, the Basque Country or Castilla y León, elections are not held on these dates.
Feijóo does not want to throw bells on the fly, as a good Galician and judicious man who knows well how the springs of politics work; and thus avoid that in the face of a possible good result his rivals minimize his success and turn it into a downward result, which detracts from his wings in the face of the generals. The 28-M is the flying goal of the final objective of the date that is still to be decided. The last ones took place on November 10, 2019. In this case, it would be on November 10, 2023, but taking into account that the dissolution of the chambers must take place 25 days before the end of that period and other circumstances, the date is yet to be determined.
Much has been said and more will be said about Sánchez’s juggling to call the general elections and remain in power until the last minute. The month of December would be quite controversial when it comes to fitting dates, mainly due to the festivities that are on the calendar at that time. Lately, December 3 has been installed as probable, but we must take into account the inconvenience of the rotating presidency of the European Union that corresponds to Spain and will be during the last semester of 2023. As if there were not enough setbacks, the Curiosity that Princess Leonor will come of age on October 31. That day she must swear the Constitution in the Cortes, and on that date the chambers cannot be dissolved, something that would occur in the event that the elections were held on the legally corresponding date, which would be November 10.
Returning to the main theme of the date of 28-M, Feijóo also said this week that he became “co-responsible” for the results that happen at the polls. A way of appealing to logic and of harming his leadership -some good surveys under his arm he must have-, and that the hour of possible results can also look forward to his final and decisive “fight” with Sanchez. The leader of the opposition knows that he will have to put up with an aggressive style on the part of the Government, that it does not miss any opportunity and does not pay attention to disqualifications of all kinds, and that it will have to maintain a certain calm, avoiding provocations, but pointing out at the same time the multiple mistakes of the Executive: mainly in the tax increases and in the inflation that does not stop, without forgetting the laws of “Only yes is yes”, “the Tito Berni case”, the division of feminism, the Trans Law, the dismantling of some institutions… and a long etc.
Núñez Feijóo, for his part, must raise the bar in his attitude of opinion and offer greater clarity in his proposals, mainly that they are the economic ones that hurt and annoy the Spanish the most. The Irish economic model, for example, has been a total success in this decade, and should serve as an inspiration and reflection for the projects of a possible future Government, but announcing these changes as a great encouragement and guarantee. Meanwhile, Sánchez will point to the successes of national and international tourism as a showcase for his management, although later he and the entire Government forget that it continues to be the country with the highest unemployment in Europe and nobody remembers the endless lines of hunger every day increases among middle-class families.
The popular ones know that voters are guided by somewhat different criteria when they have to deposit the municipal, regional or general ballot in the ballot box; mainly in the vote for mayors who are usually the closest and most recognized, and in which they do not vote so much by the party abbreviation as by the name of the candidate. Perhaps for this reason some politicians hide or minimize the brands or logos of their organization and focus support on their personal brand, since municipal ones almost always reflect the discomfort that the central government can cause. It also highlights the fact that the autonomies enjoy good fiscal management and can thereby encourage the vote to change direction, guiding voters by those advantages or fiscal aid. Of that, of her monetary incentives, Isabel Diaz Ayuso knows a lot that she has just announced a new battery of discounts through deductions in personal income tax.
Although we continue to be installed in this perpetual pre-campaign that seems to never end, in a few weeks we will have a double ration and the other will begin, the official campaign of 28-M, and the pressure and political change will increase even more every day They are more fed up with their purchasing power going down and the intelligence of their politicians not going up. The only thing that the voter receives in these times are the attitudes of certain leaders who only live for the political fight, and are more concerned with their personal interests and power -Iglesias versus Yolanda Díaz- than with the real needs of the citizens. These are bad times for almost everything, but-insist on politics and politicians beat us too much in our lives and in our pockets… and every day they even get into the soup. Come, Captain Thunder, let the good guy win.