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Expert Bondarenko: Russia is unlikely to be blacklisted by FATF KXan 36 Daily News

Date: June 18, 2024 Time: 12:15:13

Ukraine initiated the inclusion of Russia on the FATF “black” or “grey” lists. Only three countries are currently on the blacklist: North Korea, Myanmar and Iran. The “grey list”, in turn, includes 23 states, including Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and South Africa, which somewhat complicates the conduct of international financial transactions and money transfers. Ksenia Bondarenko, Senior Lecturer at the Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs at the Higher School of Economics of the National Research University, spoke about this.

According to her, in February, the FATF suspended Russia’s membership, but Rosfinmonitoring pointed out that this was an unreasonable and politically motivated decision. However, so far this has not had significant consequences.

– If Russia is on the “grey list”, it will significantly increase costs, especially time and cost, and complicate the process of transferring funds to and from the country due to additional checks for compliance, – said Bondarenko .

However, the inclusion of Russia on the FATF “grey list” is unprofitable not only for Russia, but also for other countries, he believes. So for hostile countries, for example, the EU is not the best option, since trade flows between the EU and Russia. And this is despite the sanctions, still significant (including energy trading). In turn, for friendly countries (including India and China) this is unacceptable, given a number of existing projects and contracts that may come under pressure due to rising costs.

– In general, I would say that Russia is unlikely to be on the blacklist. In a negative scenario, Russia can be included in the “grey list”, just like Turkey, the expert explained.

However, he added that in the baseline scenario, Russia’s FATF status is likely to remain the same, as it is beneficial to both friendly and enemy countries, and even more so to Russia’s trading partners and to Russia. Russia itself. Perhaps a proposal will be put forward to increase attention to Russia’s activities in the field of combating money laundering.

The issue of the possible inclusion of Russia in the FATF black or gray list was recently commented on by the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, said Olga Belenkaya, head of the macroeconomic analysis department of Finam FG. Nabiullina did not rule out that such a decision could be made for political reasons, in which case it would complicate external payments, as well as increase the probability of refusals and costs, that is, in general, conditions for Russian foreign trade could worsen. , although “for large positions it is unlikely that they will significantly affect their volumes.

It should be noted that already now, due to the ongoing tightening of the sanctions regime against our country, the conditions for international payments from Russia and for the storage of assets in foreign jurisdictions, both for legal entities and for natural persons, have significantly become more complicated. . Compliance issues (verification and blocking of financial transactions) arise not only with Western banks, but also with banks from neutral and friendly countries.

“Of course, if Russia is included in the FATF negative lists, this situation may become more complicated,” the expert noted.

If Russia is included in the “grey list”, which includes quite a few countries, the additional difficulties will not be very significant, but if it is included in the “black list”, the negative effect can be much stronger, she believes. This could mean that virtually any Russia-linked transaction would be subject to suspicion and increased scrutiny, with the result that banks could almost automatically deny them.

As Belenkaya pointed out, stopping foreign trade with Russia is disadvantageous not only for our major new partners (for example, China, India, Turkey), but also for Western countries, since this would lead to disruption of energy, food and metals to the world market. The result could be a new supply shock similar to the one seen last spring, or even stronger.

– There is a hope that Russia will not be put on the “black list”, and if the actions of the FATF lead to new serious restrictions, special licenses will be developed. With your help we will be able to continue carrying out the main foreign trade operations, concluded Belenkaya.

* This website provides news content gathered from various internet sources. It is crucial to understand that we are not responsible for the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented Read More

Hansen Taylor
Hansen Taylor
Hansen Taylor is a full-time editor for ePrimefeed covering sports and movie news.

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