Rossiyskaya Gazeta experts predicted what awaits the Russians in 2023.
Alexey Krichevsky, financial expert, author of the Economism Telegram channel:
ruble exchange rate
The factors that will affect the ruble exchange rate are simple: oil, sanctions and the situation around Ukraine. They will not change during 2023. The most that can still happen is a new strong wave of covid or some other disease.
Given the current levels of Russian oil production and prices, fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate from 60-62 to 90 rubles to the dollar are quite possible. In general, a move in the region of 75-80 rubles is seen as a more likely scenario.
oil and gas prices
Oil will depend on the pandemic and how the conflict in Ukraine develops or not. Jumps to $120 a barrel on peak demand are possible as OPEC+ continues to maintain a decent market deficit policy.
Gas will be affected by the situation around winter in Europe. Prices will move in the range of 900 to 2,000 dollars per thousand cubic meters. But in the fall, the price may seriously rise if Europe fails to solve the problem of filling storage facilities without Russian gas and building almost a dozen LNG storage facilities.
real estate prices
The real estate sector next year will not show any movement, except downwards. If new building prices have already fallen by around 10% from peak values, at least the same correction can be expected for secondary housing.
The new buildings will be backed by prime mortgages as much as possible. But here, too, positive dynamics are unlikely. The growth limit of the average price of housing under construction for the year is half of annual inflation.
Don’t be surprised if inflation falls to near zero in the spring: this is the effect of an extremely high base.
Over the horizon of the year, it will definitely not be less than 6-7%, since the effect of devaluation and the increase in the cost of imports will be superimposed here. So an 8-10% runner seems to be more or less a true story, if there are no new crashes. And in 2024, it can really drop to 5-6%.
With the new sanctions, everything is extremely simple. The EU and the US say openly that there is nothing left to invent. Therefore, there will be no serious shocks associated with sanctions.
The only thing that can emerge is that the current main trading partners of the Russian Federation – China, India, Turkey, Iran and partly Kazakhstan – will be put under pressure by the West, forcing them to move away from Russia.
But one should not expect any serious package of sanctions, they can only be cosmetic.
Ksenia Artemyeva, COO of the FinTech Fast River platform:
Bank loans and deposits
By leaving the key rate unchanged at the last meeting and posting a fairly positive benchmark forecast that inflation will return to 5-7% in 2023, the central bank gave consumers a fairly transparent signal that the state of the economy it is stabilizing.
If the base forecast scenario occurs, the key rate range will remain within 6.5-8.5%. However, the cost of loans for individuals will be around these figures (+2-3%) only in the case of large and long secured loans, such as car loans or mortgages. In other cases, with current risk factors, unsecured cash loans may cost an average of 16-18% per year by 2023.
The return on deposits will also depend on the key rate and can be in the region of 5-7% for long-term deposits. And if the trend of the outflow of cash does not stop, it can be higher by 0.5-1% from the indicator of the Central Bank.
Sergey Sukhhostavets, Director of Operations of the technology platform “Rocket Work”:
In 2023, on average, salaries for employees working in a specialty with a low entry threshold and for line staff can grow by 15-20%.
The most notable increase in wages will be where demand is high. For example, in construction or among car mechanics. In addition, the salaries of state employees are guaranteed to grow. Growth can average 8-10%.
Likewise, those whose salary is tied to the minimum wage indicator may also receive a raise. Starting January 1, it will rise to 16,242 rubles a month. This means that indexing should be expected for everyone who receives the minimum wage.
In addition, fees in the field of software development and finance can traditionally grow by 15-20%. The rise and the self-employed will not bypass. Against the background of the popularity of hiring and outsourcing of personnel, the demand for freelance services will be formed on the business side, which will positively affect the amount of remuneration (plus 10-15%).