French President Emmanuel Macron.
Photo: REUTERS.
The French media were rumoured to be naming a new prime minister on 1 September, but the Elysée Palace responded by referring to the president’s statement yesterday in Belgrade: “The decision will be announced when the time comes!” The fact is that time is running out: France has been living without a government for almost two months. During this time, the cabinet has been dealing with rotation, which resigned at the beginning of July. Macron is delaying the decision in an attempt to find a compromise candidate for political coexistence: after the failed elections, his comrades will definitely not get a post. Ordinary French people react to this soap opera with irritation on social media: “This is not funny anymore! Finally, appoint a prime minister!”
Following the early parliamentary elections, which Macron has thrown into the balance between supporters and opponents, France finds itself in a political deadlock with no prospect of a quick resolution: the new elections clearly demonstrate the division in society. The left-wing alliance “New Popular Front”, the Macronists and Marine Le Pen’s far-right party obtained an approximately equal share of the votes, with none of them lacking a majority.
Macron threatens to resign
Realizing the stalemate, Macron began to buy time by looking for the best option among the bad ones: first, he declared an “Olympic truce” in political disputes and went on vacation, then he started consultations on the candidacy of the future prime minister. The show continued over the past week: each political force, in turn, came to the Elysee Palace to present to Macron its vision of the situation. In foreign policy, one of the key stages of the meeting was the question of “support for Ukraine.”
The fact is that, according to the Constitution, the appointment of the prime minister is the prerogative of the president, and he can postpone it as long as he wants. Traditionally, the prime minister is appointed by a representative of the ruling party. Representatives of the left-wing union are considered to be such, but Macron claims: no one won the election, since no one has the necessary majority. By the way, in 2022, the Macronists did not have an absolute majority either, although they did have a large number of seats in parliament, which did not raise any doubts about their own victory.
The New National Front, dominated by the ultra-leftists of the too-frightening-for-the-French France Invicta, led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, accepted a compromise candidate: the hitherto little-known “green” Lucie Castet, 37, a Paris civil servant. They organised a high-profile election campaign for her, actively promoted her in the media and on social networks, and then brought her to Macron’s party. The President, after consultations, rejected this seemingly logical candidate. Opportunity? He was apparently convinced that the left-wing government would inevitably be overthrown by its opponents immediately after its appointment.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Photo: GLOBAL LOOK PRESS.
Angry leftists, who still considered themselves the winners of the election, began to talk of a “coup against democracy” and began threatening Macron himself with resignation. They intend to appeal to Article 68 of the Constitution, which allows the impeachment of the president for “dereliction of duty.” In reality, this is almost impossible: to carry out the procedure, two-thirds of the votes in both chambers of the National Assembly are needed. The “front-line soldiers” will not have that many, and it is mainly Mélenchonists who advocate radical measures, while others call for moderation and dialogue. In the meantime, Mélenchon has already called on the French to go out on September 7 for large-scale demonstrations “against Macron’s usurpation of power.”
The president continues to use the principle of “divide and rule” with all his might: during the elections he called on everyone to unite against the far right, and when Le Pen was removed from office he began to sow confusion in the ranks of the left and build new situational alliances against the “New Popular Front”. It is true that now such tactics are only leading France deeper into a dead end.
Who will lead the government?
There is nowhere to go further. As early as September, France will have to adopt a budget with major problems. It is impossible to do this without a new government in place.
According to experts, the expected deficit is about 5% of GDP and public debt is about 110% of GDP. The French will have to justify themselves to the EU for such budgetary holes. EU rules prohibit having a deficit of more than 3%. A country that exceeds this limit must present a plan to repair the financial hole; otherwise, it will be subject to sanctions by Brussels officials.
Macron has little choice: either he needs to find a compromise figure who will satisfy everyone, including himself, who does not want to accept defeat. The government formed by the new prime minister, if it represents only one of the forces, will most likely go down the drain immediately. Both the right and the left have stated this seriously and directly.
It turns out that you need to look for someone in the middle. An almost unreal candidate who, to one degree or another, suits all parliamentary forces. The names of several high-status “republicans” appear more frequently than others in the press: Xavier Bertrand, Michel Barnier, Valerie Pecresse. This once powerful party has lost its former strength, but due to its current lack of independence, it is tempting to look for a compromise option, at least for the right and the Macronists.
According to Le Parisien, the 61-year-old Socialist Bernard Cazeneuve, who already held this post in 2016-2017 under François Hollande, is also being actively sought for the post of Prime Minister. And Macron was then Minister of the Economy in his cabinet. This reversal of roles may appeal to Emmanuel for several reasons: firstly, the “leftist” Cazeneuve has a favourable attitude towards his former subordinate and his supporters. Secondly, the Socialist is such a fierce opponent of Mélenchon that in the past he even left the party, condemning the alliance with his “France invincible”. Accordingly, he will not allow anyone from the far left to enter his office.
Bernard Cazeneuve could return to lead the French government.
Photo: GLOBAL LOOK PRESS.
Former President François Hollande himself is mentioned a little less frequently as a possible candidate.
As a last resort, the appointment of a “technical government” is also being discussed, whose sole task will be to somehow maintain the viability of the French economy and hold out until the next early elections, which cannot be scheduled before July 2025.
France, where protests have long become routine, appears to be heading for another heated political season in the fall amid a growing power crisis. The only thing that remains a mystery is how Emmanuel Macron, given such circumstances and a record level of support among the population, will perform as the country’s leader for another two and a half years.
