“After a sharp drop in August, the ruble received new growth drivers, but at the same time additional pressure factors appeared on the national currency,” Andrey Loboda, economist and communications director at BitRiver, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta.
He recalled that the increase in the official interest rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at an extraordinary meeting of the Board of Directors immediately to 12% per annum stopped the collapse of the ruble. In favor of the growth of the ruble.
“However, the initiatives of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the voluntary exchange of assets locked in deposits between foreign and Russian investors may affect not only the currency, but also the market values,” said the expert.
In addition, he continued, the permission of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for non-residents investing in the Russian economy to withdraw dividends received abroad in an amount not exceeding the amount of investments made as well. will have an impact on the foreign exchange market. Because it is clear that non-residents will sell rubles and exchange them for foreign currency in order to take them abroad.
“The impact of these contradictory factors on the ruble may lead to high exchange rate volatility,” said Andrey Loboda. “We hope that by the end of summer, the first half of September, the dollar will be able to trade in the range of 90-98 rubles, the euro will be in the corridor from 97 to 105 rubles, the yuan – from 12.8 to 13.25 rubles. “.
The expert believes that Russia needs a strong ruble in order not to undermine its credibility on world markets, because our country is increasingly carrying out export-import operations in rubles and national currencies of friendly countries. It is also very important for the country’s population and the companies that operate in the domestic market.
The stronger the ruble, the greater the consumer demand of the population, which supports retail sales and the production of consumer goods at a high level. Ultimately, this supports key industries for Russia such as construction, information technology, mining, the service sector, and agriculture.
“At present, it cannot be ruled out that in the near future, when the budget deficit decreases and Russia’s trade balance situation improves, the ruble will begin to strengthen again. It is also possible that the Central Bank of Russia The Federation, if the ruble starts to weaken again, it will tighten currency restrictions,” the expert said.
Also, according to him, if the permission to withdraw dividends from Russia is canceled or postponed, the ruble could rise again.
