Recall that the program of lending at 8 percent per annum, which had been in effect for four years, ended on July 1. In the family loan, which was extended until 2030, new conditions appeared: borrowers with children over six years old who do not have disabilities can withdraw six million rubles at six percent per annum only in 35 constituent entities of the Russian Federation with low-income construction volumes (from the Ural Federal District only the Trans-Urals) and in small towns with a population of up to 50 thousand people. In addition, mortgages with state support apply to the construction of private housing, regardless of its location.
Initially, this was intended to support the industry during the pandemic: it was believed that developers, influenced by high demand, would start investing more in new projects. What do we have today?
– Prices have risen. The share of credit transactions in the structure of sales of new buildings in many cities has reached 80-90 percent. Since spring 2020, mortgage debt has increased by 2-3 times. Most borrowers took out loans for 30 years. At the same time, the volume of current construction in the country increased by only 15 percent, and this is a key problem: we have been stimulating demand for a long time, but we have not controlled supply, says Mikhail Khorkov, head of the analytical committee of the Russian Guild of Managers and Developers (RGUD).
Mortgage incentives were the same for everyone, but the reaction was different, as shown by the RGUD study of the 30 largest markets. For example, in the Crimea, Penza and Tyumen regions, construction volumes have recently increased. Overall, Tyumen ranked fifth in the country, after Moscow, St. Petersburg, Krasnodar and Yekaterinburg. But in St. Petersburg, the Moscow region and Bashkortostan, on the contrary, negative dynamics are observed.
In many cities, the construction sector has become disconnected from the real solvency of consumers.
As a result, there is a rapid rise in property prices in places where there is little construction or low market saturation rates. Previously, price dynamics were relatively smooth, but now they have become more uneven, says Mikhail Khorkov. According to him, in many cities the construction sector simply could not cope with the opportunities offered by preferential mortgages and therefore became disconnected from the real solvency of consumers.
In the next six months, experts believe, both buyers and sellers will take a break. People who really need them for life and without profit will buy apartments. At the same time, mortgage demand will probably shift to the suburbs and the construction of individual houses.
– In 2023, 75 thousand transactions were concluded, of which about 35-40 thousand were for new construction, another 35 thousand families bought second homes. I think the sales will drop by 20-30 percent,” says Alexander Babushkin, founder of the Etazhi company in Yekaterinburg. – I would not invest in housing with loan funds yet – there is no guarantee that the income will be higher than the interest rate on the deposit. It is another matter to look for an apartment for yourself and your family. The pent-up demand will hit the market in 2025-2026.
According to Nikita Slovikovsky, owner of the Drazhe real estate agency, demand for new construction will almost halve. Previously, state-supported mortgages accounted for 37 percent of loans issued, and household loans for 52 percent, but now they will remain about half of household loans. The problem is that demand will decline unevenly: some developers will move to retain buyers, while others will “bury their heads in the sand.”
– Everything is very bad with a five percent computer mortgage: banks set limits within a day. We are cautiously awaiting the start of sales of apartments in buildings up to 3-5 floors in Sysert, Aramil and other towns with a population of up to 50 thousand people near Yekaterinburg, as families with two children over 6 years old can now get a preferential loan there, says the businessman.
As for the hypothetical reduction in the price of new housing, real estate agents are confident that developers will prefer to sacrifice sales volume rather than lower prices. They will look for ways to stimulate demand through various instruments, such as interest-free installments during the construction period of a house, joint mortgage co-financing programs with banks, so that at least for the first two years the interest rate is at the same level of 8 to 10 percent. Well, the risks under these schemes will be included in the cost per square meter.
– The second group of tools for adapting developers to the new conditions is food tools. Consumers will more often be offered turnkey housing, a choice of finishes and furniture, with the possibility of including all these options in the body of the mortgage, explains Slovikowski. – Finally, I expect another tool to appear – when developers will start paying a commission not only to agents who help to find an apartment in a new building, but also to compensate the buyer’s costs for the services of a real estate agent when selling an exchange object.
