The country’s maternity capital program has been extended until 2030.
Photo: Anastasia OSIPOVA. Go to Photobank KP
The recently published document is called Forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period 2025-2027. In it, analysts from the Ministry of Economic Development evaluated, based on the current situation, how the country will live in the near future.
“A medium-term forecast is not a prediction of how the economy will develop, but an attempt to justify what actions are necessary for the development and growth of citizens’ incomes,” says Alexander Shirov, director of the Institute of Economic Forecasting. National. of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
According to the expert, the forecast is the basis for calculating the budget. And it is submitted to the government for consideration not alone, but together with the draft law on the federal budget.
About GDP
According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, the growth of the main economic indicator, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), will be 2.5% in 2025, 2.6% in 2026 and 2.8% in 2027 We remember that the forecast for 2024 is 3.9%.
At the same time, almost a third of GDP growth will come from investment.
“The main source of growth will be private business initiative, maintaining the support of budgetary sources. Greater investment will allow us to increase the supply of domestic goods to meet demand,” the document says.
GDP is the volume of all goods and services produced in a country. Obviously, the larger it is, the better the economy develops and the higher the income of the population.
ON INCOME AND UNEMPLOYMENT
In the next three years, high wage growth will be affected by staff shortages. In the first half of 2024, real wage growth amounted to 9.4%. By the end of the year, 9.2% is expected. In 2025-2027 the increase will be 5.6%. This growth will be facilitated by the annual increase in the minimum wage (minimum wage). From January 1, 2025, the minimum wage will increase by 16.6% and will amount to 22,440 rubles. And by 2030, its value should be at least 35 thousand rubles.
The number of employed people will increase to 74.4 million people in 2027 (74.0 million people in 2024), while unemployment will remain at 2.6% in the medium term.
ABOUT INFLATION
In 2024, consumer inflation peaked in July: 9.1% compared to the same period in 2023. In August the pace began to decline. Taking into account the end of the Christmas season and the arrival of new harvest products on the market, a slowdown of 7.3% is expected in December 2024 to December 2023.
ABOUT MATCAPITALE
The country has extended the maternity capital program until 2030, with annual indexation of its size. The amount of maternity capital as of February 1, 2024 for the first child is 630.4 thousand rubles, for the second child – 833 thousand (if the family did not receive a certificate at the time of the birth of the first child) and 202.6 thousand (if you have it, I have already received it).
The Social Fund calculated that in 2025 the maternity capital for the first child will be 676,398.58 rubles, in 2026 – 706,836.52 rubles, in 2027 – 735,109.98 rubles. For the second (third or subsequent) child in 2025, maternity capital will be paid in the amount of 893,835.55 rubles, in 2026 – 934,058.15 rubles, in 2027 – 971,420.48 rubles.
ABOUT PENSIONS
From January 1, 2024, insurance pensions of non-working pensioners are indexed by 7.5%. The average size is 23,451 rubles. In 2025, pensions will be indexed from January 1 according to the growth rate of consumer prices (this week the government submitted to the State Duma a package of bills on the federal budget, according to which it is proposed to increase pensions by 7.3% as of January 1). ). And in 2026-2027, the annual increase in insurance pensions will occur in two stages: from February 1, according to the consumer price growth index of last year, and from April 1, according to the increase in budget revenues of the Pension and Social Insurance Fund of the Russian Federation per pensioner. The indexation of social pensions in the period 2025-2027 will be carried out annually starting April 1. The pensions of working retirees will increase according to the inflation rate of the previous year.
“It is important that the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development include an understanding of how the social sphere can and will develop in terms of demographic indicators,” comments Alexander Shirov. – The economic dynamics are formed precisely by the demand of the population, by the fact that salaries will rise. Social support is also expected to outpace inflation. It should be noted here, for example, the indexation of pensions for working retirees, which has not been carried out for several years, but will now be regular. And it is not only a question of social support for this category of people, but also a question of economic training.
