The cruising speed with which the Ibex 35 has started the year has served as a boost for almost all the values, which are trying to recover positions after the stock market debacle of the previous months. The main index of the Spanish stock market has recorded an advance of almost 10% during the first month of the year, an unprecedented figure in more than two decades, increased by companies such as IAG, Banco Sabadell, Meliá and Amadeus, which are registering revaluations at digital double. A rise that is accompanied by broad support from analysts.
The bank led by César González managed to revalidate the second place in the selective of the firms that revalued the most with an increase of more than 35% at the end of January, up to 1.2 euros. The entity has experienced a vertical escalation since the presentation of its results, when it announced an increase in the percentage of its ‘pay-out’ ratio to 50%, attracting investors in droves.
This rise has been accompanied by an increase in purchase recommendations by seven points over the last four weeks, up to 64%, while purchase advice is reduced to 4%, according to the ‘Bloomberg’ consensus. One of the last to revise upwards has been CaixaBank BPI and it joins JB Capital Markets.
Investors have high expectations in the banking sector. The rise in interest rates has allowed them to recover part of the narrow margins, something that is already reflected in the 2022 accounts presented by Bankinter and Unicaja. Pending the end of this week for Banco Santander, CaixaBank and BBVA, everything points to an increase in their profits, a trend that is expected to continue in 2023 and that will make it the ‘safeguard’ of the Spanish stock market.
Meliá, which has become another of the protagonists of the rises in the Ibex with a rebound of 33% in the last month, is already eight cents away from its target price and is at the limit of its shares becoming considered as ‘faces’. Something that contrasts with the estimates of the analysis houses, which increase their purchase advice from 40 to 42%, while cutting the ‘hold’ one by three points, up to 42%.
Amadeus completes the shortlist, which, despite narrowing its potential path after the 18% rise since last January 2, has broad support from investment banks. More than six out of ten analysts surrender to the company dedicated to developing solutions for the tourism industry, compared to 7% who hardly advise selling. Among them, Alantra Equities or Bestinver Securities stand out.
IAG does not have the same luck. The giant of the airline sector appeared in 2023 ready to win the ‘sprint’ and already posts a rise above 37% that leads it to lead the rises in the index. Although it still has half the consensus in its favor, it has lost steam as its share price approaches the two-euro barrier, a level that would take it to a two-year high.
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The ‘rally’ helped the Ibex 35 to erase the losses of 5.56% suffered during the past year for four consecutive weeks. Now that the course of the central banks is clearer, the market is confident that it can end this year above the 10,200 point barrier, with room to rise another 13% over the next eleven months.
If confirmed, it would be placed among the main indices of the Old Continent that takes the least advantage of optimism among investors, only behind the French CAC, for which analysts give a growth expectation of 11.8%. Something more of distance takes the German Dax, for which a ‘rally’ of 15% is estimated until next December. For the London and Milan stock markets, the potential exceeds 14%.
