The lower delivery of homes takes its toll on Neinor Homes. The developer obtained 16% lower revenues during 2022, up to 765 million, a figure that is below the 810 million estimated by consensus, although the gross operating profit (ebitda) is slightly above forecast ( 137 million) with 146 million, once the Quabit absorption process was completed.
The market has received these results with moderate pessimism, whose billing volume had already been anticipated in January. Investors have reacted with sales and the firm’s titles fell 1.75% on Thursday. This does not prevent the company from being the one that has appreciated the most on the stock market of those dedicated to real estate activity so far this year, with an advance of 16.8%. The firm led by Borja García-Egoetxeaga has just suffered a bump of 22.4%, so this acceleration places it at levels last September.
At yesterday’s market close, its share was trading at 9.5 euros, a level that, according to the senior analyst of Renta 4, Javier Díaz, already discounts the containment of the volume of deliveries expected for this 2023, which will oscillate between 2,500 and 3,000 units, in line with those registered during the past year. During the presentation of the annual results, Neinor has highlighted the case of the new residential housing market in Spain, being one of the countries with the lowest ‘per capita’ ratio of new construction supply.
The group founded in 2015 has highlighted its intention to reinforce the ‘built to rent’ area after the income item has increased by 15%. In this sense, Díaz already warns that the reinforcement of the lease portfolio can become an ‘Achilles heel’ for the group, since “they offer less margin with respect to the sale of housing.” At the end of 2022, its ebitda margin reached 19.1%, although it is still two tenths below that recorded in 2019.
It has the trick of the dividend
Looking ahead to 2023, Neinor Homes expects a year similar to last year and projects a gross operating profit of between 140 and 160 million, an amount that Díaz considers “low”, and that will be motivated precisely by that inclination towards the ‘built rent’. The focus will be on the debt, which can climb up to 500 million, from the current 300 million, depending on the investments that it finally undertakes.
These prospects have caused a division among analysts who reviewed the value on Thursday. While Mirabaud or Bestinver advise buying, JB Capital Markets or Citi are neutral. In any case, the majority of the consensus recommends buying (46%) and 15% selling. From the investor side, one of its main attractions is the dividend yield, which reaches 12%.
Analysts surrender to real estate listed companies
While waiting for the bulk of the sector to render its accounts next week, there are companies that show great potential on the stock market in twelve months. The investment bank has targeted Lar España, which it sees room to rebound by almost 60% on the stock market, a ‘rally’ that would add to the 13% recorded since last January 2, as well as Aedas Homes, which may reach a price of 42% above the 14.5 euros in which it is found. The company maintains its forecast of registering income at the end of its fiscal year next March, despite the fact that these fell between March and December. Metrovacesa, for its part, is about to exhaust its run on the stock market after recovering the threshold of 7 euros.
Analysts are somewhat less optimistic with the Ibex 35 companies, for which they grant a 12-month revaluation of 8.3% for Colonial and 16.7% for Merlin Properties. The firm headed by Ismael Clemente is one of the ones that is taking the least advantage of the bullish fever in the market after accumulating a rise of 3.6% in the annual calculation. It should be noted that it was one of the ones that best weathered the storm in 2022, which is why analysts explain that it is at the bottom of the selective rises. It remains to be seen if once all the cards are on the table next week and show investors how inflation, the rise in interest rates and the slowdown in the economy have impacted their activity if these continue to support them.