On the night of October 1, Israel crossed the southern borders of Lebanon and invaded the territory of the Arab state.
Photo: REUTERS.
On the night of October 1, Israel crossed the southern borders of Lebanon and invaded the territory of the Arab state. The stated goal of the operation is to eliminate the bases of the Shiite Hezbollah movement, but many political analysts agree that the invasion could lead to full-scale hostilities between the two states; They are already talking about the beginning of the Third Lebanon War.
How will this affect the global economy? Will it affect the Russian economy in any way? What will happen to oil prices and the ruble exchange rate? Will it affect the import of goods?
“This armed conflict will not have any noticeable impact on the world economy, let alone the Russian one,” Andrey Suzdaltsev, deputy dean of the Faculty of Economics and World Politics at the Higher School of Economics, told KP.RU. – Of course, military actions have an impact on world oil prices. But Lebanon does not have its own oil and does not supply it to the world market. Although in general the military conflicts in the Middle East are stimulating a slight increase in the price of this energy vector. But even if this happens, it will be insignificant, since the region’s main oil producers have accumulated large volumes of unused reserves.
The fact that global oil prices can rise is a plus for our economy. At the same time, the expert noted that every year the Russian budget depends less and less on oil prices. For example, on Monday, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the share of oil and gas revenues in the Russian budget next year will be 27%. This is lower than in all previous years, the minister noted.
We have solved the oil problem. What other changes are possible in our lives in connection with global cataclysms? What happens if the ruble falls?
“No, I don’t think so: Israel’s conflict with Lebanon and the dollar/ruble exchange rate are very weakly connected,” Suzdaltsev said.
What about the supply of goods? The trade turnover between Russia and Israel is not very large. According to the TrendEconomy portal, in 2023 Russia exported goods to Israel worth just over 2 billion dollars, despite the fact that our total exports, according to Rosstat, amounted to 425 billion dollars in 2023. Thus, Israel represents approximately 0.5%. Basically, it’s grain.
And goods worth approximately one billion dollars arrive in Russia from Israel. These are mainly vegetables and fruits, citrus fruits, nuts and medicinal cosmetics. You can often find Israeli avocados, grapefruits, persimmons and mangoes on the shelves of Russian supermarkets. Less frequently: oranges.
“The supply of Israeli goods to Russia may decrease due to the war,” Suzdaltsev suggested.
