Ruble
Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank:
“For next week we expect sideways dynamics of the ruble and consolidation of the exchange rate near current levels. The expected trading range is 90 to 94 rubles per dollar, 97 to 101 rubles per euro, 12.4 to 12 .9 rubles per yuan.
Last week, the March tax period ended, when exporters actively sell foreign currency to make payments to the budget, and until the last week of April the ruble lost this support factor.
In general, the factors of strengthening and weakening of the ruble remain balanced. The ruble exchange rate remained stable for five consecutive months in the range of 88 to 93 rubles. per dollar The introduction, starting in mid-October, of the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings for the largest exporters stabilized the ruble.
In April, an important factor for the ruble exchange rate will be the government’s decision on whether the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings will be extended and under what conditions. This measure is currently valid until April 30. We assume that starting in May some sales parameters will soften and exporters will sell less currency.
Also favoring the ruble are high oil prices and sales of yuan from reserves within the framework of budgetary operations worth 7.1 billion rubles. per day and high interest rates in rubles. We believe that against a backdrop of rising inflation, the Bank of Russia will maintain the key interest rate of 16% at its next meeting on April 26.
“The factors slowing down the strengthening of the ruble are geopolitical and sanctions risks, capital outflows, demand for foreign currency to buy shares in Russian companies from foreign owners, and soft budget policy (demand for imports).”
Oil
Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank:
“After a brief correction, oil prices have again reached the highs of the current year. Despite the strengthening of the dollar against the background of hawkish statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve, the majority of risk asset segments are rising in price. This is due to the continued tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, as well as the persistence of the oil supply deficit, which is depleting global reserves.
However, industrial statistics in the United States did not support the rise in oil prices. Commercial oil inventories unexpectedly rose during the week, while total production remained unchanged.
The oil market is in comfortable conditions. OPEC+ continues to control the level of global oil prices thanks to production restrictions. In addition, market participants fear that a reduction in the supply of oil and oil products from Russia could increase the global deficit, leading to an even further acceleration in prices. It is possible that in the coming days Brent prices will begin to reach $90 per barrel.”
Exchange
Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist at BCS World of Investments:
“Over the past week, the Russian stock market recovered from the fall caused by the tragedy at Crocus City Hall. The Moscow Stock Exchange index returned to 3,300 points, supported by the optimism of oil prices and news Purchasing was restricted by the Ruble’s alarming news history and attempts to strengthen.
Next week, the ruble may lose a little ground, as usually happens immediately after the end of the tax period. This will increase the attractiveness of shares of exporters, which occupy more than half of the Moscow Stock Exchange index. The focus of trading participants will continue to be on commodity price dynamics, regulatory signals, geopolitics, issuer news and key economic statistics.
The backdrop of corporate news will be intense. On Monday the financial results will be published by the Mother and Child group of companies and Softline; Norilsk Nickel shares will be traded on the last day before the suspension associated with the split. On Tuesday, the Moscow Stock Exchange will publish trading volumes for March, Astra will celebrate Investor Day and publish IFRS results for 2023. On Wednesday Karmani will present financial statements according to international standards, and the next day AFK Sistema. Thursday is the last day to register in the register of shareholders entitled to receive Cherkizovo dividends for 2023.
Among the events of the week we highlight the OPEC meeting in the middle of the week. The main statistical data that investors will follow will be the PMI indices of economic activity for March in services and industry in China, the eurozone and the United States. Also important will be the preliminary CPI in the European region (Wednesday) and the US labor market report for the last month (Friday).”
