The leadership in the Siberian Federal District in terms of exports abroad for the past five years has been held by the Altai Territory by a wide margin. Today in Altai, hundreds of thousands of hectares are occupied by soybeans, rapeseed, flax (which were once specialized crops) and, of course, sunflowers. The region tops the list of major exporters of sunflower, flax, soybeans, mustard and other crops, second only to the Krasnoyarsk Territory in rapeseed. At the same time, China, Belarus and Kazakhstan import rapeseed, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan import sunflower and export Siberian flax to 13 countries. Recently, Kazakhstan purchased milk thistle seeds for the first time, and Kyrgyzstan purchased sesame and poppy seeds.
Overall, oilseeds from Siberia have been supplied to 14 countries over the past five years. The main importers are Kazakhstan and China. This year, 193.3 thousand tons of oilseeds have already arrived in Kazakhstan, three times more than in 2019. China purchased 190.5 thousand tons (an increase of 77 percent).
Now in Siberia, as well as throughout Russia, a new oilseed harvest is underway. The Moscow-based analytical company ProZerno believes that up to 15 million tons of sunflower will be harvested in the country (excluding new regions), including about 1.2 million in the Siberian Federal District. The soybean harvest is expected to be about 7.4 million tons (in the Siberian Federal District – 513 thousand), and rapeseed – five million (in Siberia – almost two million tons). What is important is that the yields of soybeans and rapeseed are record highs. The harvest of oilseed flax will be about 1.6 million tons (the second largest in the history of the country), of which 507 thousand tons are Siberian (Altai – 250 thousand).
– How can our farmers make money on the agricultural market? When it comes to soybeans, our outlook is negative. The harvest in Brazil and the United States will be record-breaking. The United States is expected to harvest 125 million tons of soybeans, and Brazil will harvest even more – a record 169 million. In addition, global soybean stocks are at an all-time high. A surprising picture is emerging for rapeseed: three years of stable global production. Consumption is growing, inventories are falling. There should be a slight increase in the future, but I don’t know when it will start,” says Vladimir Petrichenko, director of ProZerno.
The only bright spot so far is sunflower oil. In the 2023-2024 agricultural season, 7.8 million tons of sunflower oil were produced in Russia, and about 4.8 million tons were exported. The traditional main buyers of Russian sunflower oil were Iran (281 thousand tons), India (973 thousand tons in the 2023-2024 season), China (550 thousand), Turkey (366 thousand) and Egypt (355 thousand). In the new season, an authoritative expert predicts, about 7.1 million tons of oil will be produced at domestic factories, and about 4.2 million tons will be sold abroad.
According to the forecasts of specialists from the Blago Group, which owns oil extraction plants in Barnaul and Biysk in Altai, prices for sunflower oil will inevitably rise, although there are no preconditions for explosive growth. Moreover, palm oil, which is now excessively expensive, will become cheaper, and the price of rapeseed oil will correlate with oil prices. Viktor Pashkov, director of raw material procurement at Blago, urged sunflower growers at the Grain of Siberia forum not to expect sky-high prices – the experience of recent years shows that such a policy does not give anyone any advantage. It is better to sell products evenly from month to month, which will allow all market participants to work calmly and earn money.
Meanwhile
This is the position of processors (it doesn’t matter if it’s oilseeds or grains). And among raw material producers the principle of “here and now” usually prevails. They can also understand each other. Although here someone may end up “in chocolate” and someone – exhausted. Besides, this autumn is not yet encouraging for Siberian farmers. Nobody needs rain now, but it keeps coming.
