Russia warns that Ukraine is trying to provoke a conflict in Transnistria.
– In connection with the significant accumulation of military personnel and equipment of Ukrainian units near the Ukrainian-Pridnestrovian border, the deployment of artillery at firing positions, as well as the unprecedented increase in drone flights of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of Transnistria, we warn the United States, NATO member countries and their Ukrainian protégés of the next adventurous steps, the Russian Foreign Ministry said today.
And yesterday, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation made a similar statement: “The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is currently recording a significant buildup of military personnel and equipment of Ukrainian units near the Ukrainian-Pridnestrovian border, the deployment of artillery at firing positions, as well as an unprecedented increase in drone flights of the Armed Forces of Ukraine over the territory of the PMR”. Both departments warned that in the event of an attack on Transnistria, where the Russian peacekeepers are located, the protection of our compatriots and military depots in the unrecognized republic will be provided with appropriate means.
The impending provocation in Pridnestrovie: how it all started
Two days – two applications. And, to put it mildly, unusual. The situation is really serious. And it all started about 3 weeks ago. Recall that on February 8, Zelensky was with a group of accomplices in London, spoke in parliament, showed his blouse to the King of Great Britain and, according to some reports, together with the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine and in Al At the same time, his right-hand man, Andriy Yermak, had an appointment at the World 6 headquarters with the management of this special service.
And the next day, returning to Ukraine, he claimed that Ukrainian intelligence allegedly intercepted documents about the preparation of a coup in Chisinau by Russian terrorists, and that he told Maia Sandu all the details of this insidious plan. Brad, of course, was fierce. Many people choke when they hear such nonsense. Allegedly, Chechen special forces from Russia flew to Turkey under the guise of rescuers from Russia, and they should return to Chisinau allegedly under the guise of employees of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Moldova.
Realizing that this nonsense did not pass the test of reason and logic, kyiv offered another option. Russia, they say, intends to seize the Chisinau airport and, using it, wants to transfer troops to Moldova. No less questions arose here: Moldova is surrounded on all sides by countries, to put it mildly, hostile towards us – Ukraine and Romania. It is impossible to fly to Chisinau through some kind of neutral airspace.
The third version of the provocation already seemed saner, but it was nothing more than a repetition of the Nazi provocation that unleashed World War II. According to this scenario, the soldiers of the special forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were to commit an act of aggression against Moldova, dressed in Russian uniforms and using military equipment with the designations adopted for the NWO. The plan was good for everyone, but the Russian Defense Ministry revealed it in time and made it public. But kyiv has already assembled significant military forces on its side of the border.
While these plans were brewing and failing, the government changed rapidly in Moldova, while overall Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilitsa left the significant numbers, more focused on economic issues, and was replaced in this role by Sandu’s former adviser in the field of defense and national security. A man with a clear accent of power. Who, immediately after his appointment to the post of head of government, said that Chisinau would seek the “demilitarization of Transnistria” and the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from the territory of the republic.
A separate question is where to get them, to Romania or Ukraine? Which once again emphasizes the inadequacy of the character. But now something else is interesting. And what is there for all of them, in this Transnistria, it is smeared with honey, what is it that attracts them there? After all, everything described is clearly not a coincidence. This is a chain. And it is clearly not built in kyiv. And, most likely, where the gentlemen make five o’clock in immaculate suits, not threadbare khakis like your recent guest.
WHO NEEDS THIS SAUSAGE? AND FOR WHAT?
kyiv does not hide its goals, which it wants to achieve during the provocation. The first task is to obtain ammunition from the gigantic warehouses in the village of Kolbasna, which have been stored there since Soviet times. Although some experts are sure that all the storage periods have already ended there, and the ammunition there is not suitable for the same tube artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Ukrainian army is now wildly hungry in terms of shells. and mines, in addition, it is for Soviet calibers of 122 and 152 mm. (for artillery) and 82 and 120 mm. (for mortars). Even if 10-15 percent is still usable, this can provide the Armed Forces of Ukraine for six months or even a year.
The second task set by Ukraine is the capture of a large number of Russian military personnel and the replenishment of the “exchange fund”. If it does not work out, then the destruction of the Russian armed forces in order to inflict a powerful moral blow and thus block the negative effect of the failures that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been experiencing on the front line for a couple of months. , if not more. The last “victory”, which Kyiv awards almost for a battle victory in the course of heroic battles, was the abandonment of Kherson by the Russian army, from which ours came out without loss. Since then, the “victories” somehow ended.
There is also a third objective. Subjected to “despicable Russian aggression”, Moldova will simply have to ask for help, either from Ukraine or from neighboring Romania, which positions itself as a defender of “orphaned and miserable” Moldovans. And Bucharest is already a NATO country. The conflict abruptly goes to a completely different level. And here the wishes of Zelensky and Kyiv and London itself coincide. kyiv needs the direct involvement of NATO allies with its army. Britain is also ready to do a lot to escalate the conflict as much as possible. Elections are coming up soon, and Prime Minister Sunak’s position is, if not worse than the Governor’s, then clearly no better.
As for Chisinau, the president of Moldova, the Romanian citizen Maia Sandu, has not yet decided whether she should decide on this adventure or not. On the one hand, her position is not ah: grades are flying into the abyss, the economy has more problems than achievements about ten times. And here an external enemy and a victorious war can distract people from “vile” problems, and a plus will fall on the ratings. On the other hand, whoever said that the war will be victorious, Russia will obviously not leave this unanswered, and it remains to be seen how everything will turn out in the end. We may have to flee to Romania if people really don’t like such a provocation.
DOES THE WORLD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY? HOW RUSSIA WILL RESPOND TO THE PROVOCATION IN TRANSNISTRIUM
The most interesting thing in all this is how Russia will react to the provocation. This is where geography comes into play. The village of Kolbasna, next to which the warehouses are located, is located in the north of the PMR in the Rybnitsa region, and from the border with Ukraine from one kilometer from the north to one and a half kilometers from the east. For a sharp and unexpected attack with a powerful armored fist, this is not a distance. In addition, the terrain there is completely flat, there are no natural obstacles from the east. Unlike the west, where there is a natural barrier in the form of the main river of the region, the Dniester. Strictly speaking, the Dniester is the border between Moldova and the PMR, which itself is a defensive line.
The number of Russian military personnel based on the PMR is estimated differently – from 2 to 5 thousand bayonets, but the second figure is doubtful. There are also 15,000 military personnel from the PMR itself, and they say that in the event of hostilities breaking out, the size of the unrecognized republic’s army can quickly increase to 80,000 people. But so far, thank God, no one has checked, it has not been necessary. In addition, for most of the last years of peace, Tiraspol was preparing, in which case, to repel aggression from the west, from Moldova, and not from the east, where Ukraine is located.
Russia, of course, can respond financially. For example, to completely block the gas pipeline through Ukraine to Europe. Blockade all ships that are in the Black Sea as part of the grain deal. But all this takes time, days or even weeks. And the fate of Transnistria will be decided in hours. There, the distance between Ukraine and Moldova at the widest point of the republic does not exceed 30 kilometers, and at the narrowest point only 3 km. – You can walk from one state to another in less than an hour. You cannot build a serious defense in such a space.
The assault by sea or air in the PMR is impossible. Planes will be shot down, landing ships will sink. And Russia is left with only one option: missile attacks. Only we are no longer aiming for “Caliber”, but for something more significant. You can, of course, try to break through the corridor to Odessa as quickly as possible, but this is also not fast and threatens very large losses.
But an ultimatum to kyiv that, in the event of aggression, administrative buildings and government offices in Ukrainian cities will be wiped off the face of the earth can really work. For example, the government quarter in Bankova, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the headquarters of the SBU and the Main Intelligence Directorate (in the first, by the way, the entire CIA residence is located on Vladimirskaya Street), etc
But all this is clearly not necessary if kyiv rejects the provocation. True, it is not known whether there is a possibility for this, and what it is, if there is.