Tailwinds are blowing for the Ibex 35. The Spanish selective has started 2023 with momentum and seems willing to reconquer 9,000 points, a level that would lead it to reach highs last May. The expectation that the end of interest rate hikes is near given the moderation in CPI rates both in the euro zone and in the United States has pushed investors to opt for purchases. After closing this Friday at 8,881 points, this index accumulates a rebound close to 8%, so that only in the first nine sessions of the year the index would have already risen at least a quarter of what was expected by the most optimistic analysts, while for the most conservative it would even begin to run out of room for rise.
Renta 4 would be located in the first group, which in December predicted that the Ibex could climb to 10,974 points this year. While waiting for it to review this objective – it does so quarterly – with the acceleration at the start of the year the main Spanish index would have reduced its upward potential from 33 to 23% in 2023.
But for other more conservative analysts, the margin for promotion would already be practically nil, as is the case with Bankinter. The bank estimated at the end of 2022 that the Ibex could climb to 9,093 points in this new year, giving it a potential of 10 percent that would now have almost completely disappeared.
The consensus of analysts estimates that the Ibex could still rise 14% in 2023
The market consensus would stay between the two. According to data from Bloomberg, the Ibex has a margin to reach 10,125 points in twelve months; that is to say, that after the unexpected growth of these first two weeks, it still hides an upward potential of 14%.
Full of climbs with one exception
For the moment, practically all the values, except Iberdrola, which yields a modest 0.27%, reaches the second week of the year in the green. Cyclical companies such as IAG (+27.08%), Meliá (+25.16%) or Unicaja Banco stand out, which, in just four weeks, accumulates a revaluation of 20.72%. The analysis houses see a great vein in the weight of the bank, which represents around a third of the index and which has been reinforced with the entry of the aforementioned entity to replace Siemens Gamesa.
The rise in interest rates has favored banks, which are registering a rise in profits derived, in part, from the recovery of margins, after years weighed down by an expansive monetary policy and low financing costs. Added to this is the increase in its treasury stock, with share buyback plans in BBVA, CaixaBank or Banco Santander, which have also contributed to strengthening its share price.
For example, the bank chaired by Ana Botín stands out, which in just two weeks rose more than 11.92%, after ending 2022 as the only bank in losses, and was on the heels of Banco Sabadell (+12.13% ) and the firm led by Carlos Torres (+12.92%). Somewhat further behind is Bankinter, which advances 6.57%. However, the big surprise is Fluidra and Grifols, which went from being ‘red lanterns’ to being among the top positions, with a revaluation of 15.22% and 15.78%, respectively. Rovi, for its part, which has just lost half its value on the stock market, posted a timid rise of 0.33%.
Federal (Fed) could be closer after the moderation of inflation in the US, up to 6.5% year-on-year, draws a favorable scenario for investors, who see the end of this aggressive cycle in which the price of money has increased closer at a great speed. Although the euro zone rate is still high (9.2% in December), it is growing at a slower pace, opening the door for the European Central Bank (ECB) to moderate the course of its monetary policy as well.
If this scenario is achieved, the XTB analyst, Darío García, believes that the Ibex 35 could continue on its upward trajectory and reach 10,000 points, in line with the forecast of the majority of the market. In spite of this, he warns that the maximums in movement that the selective ones are “increasingly smaller” and that it is very far from the almost 16,000 points registered in 2007, before the outbreak of the financial crisis.
Although the Spanish stock market has managed to close 2022 as the parquet that has fallen the least in the entire Old Continent (-5.56%) and has managed to erase these annual losses after sealing 2021 at 8,760 points, traditionally, it lags behind in the uptrends. “The Ibex is protectionist when there are corrections,” defends García.
Equities face 2023 with a little more optimism after navigating twelve dark months, in which the war in Ukraine has put a stop to even the most pessimistic forecasts. To date, the upward tone prevails in the Spanish parquet, but the scenario may change at any time. García points out among the main threats another closure of China’s borders as a result of the increase in infections, without losing sight of the fact that there has not yet been a collapse in consumption “as the central banks seek”. “There is a decorrelation between the financial markets and the real economy, because they have anticipated some events that have not yet been seen,” he specifies.
