The general director of Economy and Statistics of the Bank of Spain, Ángel Gavilán, has advanced this Tuesday that the inflation forecast for 2023 that the organization will publish in June will place it “closer to 3%” than the 3.7% that he predicted in March . He said this on Tuesday at a round table together with the chief economist of the Institute of International Finance, Robin Brooks, and the chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, Alicia García, within the framework of the 38th Cercle d’Economia Meeting, which is being held between Monday and Wednesday at the Hotel W in Barcelona.
Likewise, the forecast for the growth rate of the Spanish economy this year “will be around or above 2%”, compared to 1.6% in the last forecast due to the dynamics of activity that occurred in the second quarter. Gavilán has stressed that from the end of this year and the beginning of 2024 “inflation will pick up due to a mechanical effect” by eliminating the measures that will be deployed during the energy crisis to stop the rise in prices. On the other hand, he has called for structural reforms, “which must be with a broad consensus and vocation of permanence”, to solve the persistent low productivity that the Spanish economy has.
Russia and China
For her part, the chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis, Alicia García, has pointed out that the sanctions against Russia “have never been very effective”, but has assured that in China they have had, in her words, a mirror effect due to the which they have understood that there is a risk of sanctions or partial isolation. He has considered that if the Chinese economy does not grow, this will affect the economy: “If the machine does not finish starting, we will see it in a positive way in inflation and negative in global growth”, although he has indicated that one should not forget the Rest of Asia, where there is an economy that is working, in his words.
The chief economist of the Institute of International Finance Robin Brooks buying in that country. On the other hand, for Brooks, the debate on inflation is whether the solution lies in demand or supply, and he has considered that the focus is “too much on demand when in reality the supply is greater than what is appreciated”.