On July 20, Bankinter will kick off the financial sector results season for the second quarter of the year. The analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg expect three months of recording both revenue and profit, once the impact of the extraordinary tax on the sector has been diluted and the entities fully charge financial against the accounts of the first quarter re of the year, appreciating the impact of the rise in interest rates by the European Central Bank (ECB).
The period from April to June will be marked by the repreparation of the mortgage loan, a circumstance that began to be noticed at the end of last year and picked up speed in the first quarter of the year, but which will still continue and will be especially tense in the second quarter. On the contrary, the banks will have to face a slowdown in the granting of new mortgage loans, which would be offset by consumer credit and, to a lesser extent, by business credit, as well as a possible flight in deposits due to the lack their remuneration and greater political pressure. Delinquency, which is still under control, should not be a problem. This would allow the six selective banks a total of 6,850 million euros, 31%, than a year ago, when the profit was placed at 5,198 million euros.
Banco Santander would report a net profit of 2,613.63 million euros in the second quarter of the year, which means improving the result for the same period of 2022 by just over 11%. It must be taken into account that the bank chaired by Ana Botín saw how its result was stagnant in the first quarter due to the tribute, earning just 1% more. Regarding the interest margin, it will exceed 10,000 million euros, 10,412.88 million euros, 9% more than twelve months earlier. The market will be very attentive to the evolution of deposits, after suffering an outflow of 20,000 million. Another point that will centralize the market’s attention will be the evolution of Brazil.
For its part, BBVA will approach 6,000 million euros in revenue, driven by activity in Mexico and Spain. Specifically, the interest margin will close the second quarter of the year at 5,750 million euros, which implies an improvement of 30%, which will allow the entity chaired by Carlos Torres to present a profit for the quarter of 2,613 million euros, According to market estimates, a figure that would be 68% above the quarterly profit of 2022. Until March, the bank earned 39.4%. If these figures are confirmed, BBVA could record another historical profit, which would exceed 7,000 million.
Impact on domestic banking
The rise in interest rates and its impact on the Euribor, the index to which most variable-rate mortgages are referenced, will allow domestic banks to continue repricing their credit portfolio, compensating for lower activity. Precisely, experts calculate that 80% of Caixabank’s mortgages have not reflected the rise in the Euribor at the end of the first quarter, a phenomenon that will allow entities to comply with their guides for double-digit interest margin growth for this anus
In the case of Caixabank, the bank presented a profit of 1,129 million euros, due to the increase in rates and that could be extended to 2024 and that would allow a greater cost of risk and the increase in costs to be reduced, especially labor costs if unions and employers agree to new increases for the end of the year. This figure improves the 866 million euros of 2022
The profit of Banco Sabadell would stand at the end of June at 296 million euros, 65% more than in 2022, when the bank directed by César González-Bueno scored 179 million euros. In the first three months of the year, profits stood at 205 million euros. A clear improvement that could place the bank’s profit on the verge of 1,000 million euros at the end of the year.
For their part, the Unicaja Banco accounts have the difficult task of having the approval of analysts, after they did not have their approval in the first quarter for the provisions made. The Malaga-based bank would report a net profit of 97.40 million euros, almost three times more than in the first quarter of the year. The interest margin would stand at 307 million, 15% more than in 2022 and would meet the objectives set by the bank.
Bankinter’s interest margin would skyrocket
Finally, Bankinter has the task of repeating the similar figures of the first quarter, when its interest margin rises to 60%. Precisely, the analysts once again point to the entity led by María Dolores Dancausa as the positive surprise of the quarter, since its income would rise by 51%, due to the rise in interest rates. Likewise, the growth in the volume of loans has been high in recent years and is expected to continue, with remuneration of deposits at low levels. The bank will earn 216.30 million euros until June, with the interest margin growing by 53% year-on-year to 529 million euros. Large investors such as JP Morgan expect the bank to exceed 780 million euros in profits in the coming years.
