The ‘boom’ caused among investors by Treasury Bills is far from cool. Prior appointments at the Bank of Spain to be able to open and operate with direct accounts, essential to be able to invest in this type of product, continue to run out quickly and in the main capitals (Madrid, Barcelona, Bilbao, Seville, Valencia and Oviedo). there are no gaps until mid-July. In other cities like Valladolid or Zaragoza, you would have to wait until the end of June to make an appointment.
And it is that the interest on the part of savers in State debt is maintained, especially after the returns have crossed the 3% barrier in all its terms. Thus, in the last auction held this Tuesday, the interest on the three-month paper exceeded 3%, while at six months it stood at 3.2%. In a longer term, both six and 12 months, the interest marked in the last auction made it return to levels of the summer of 2012, in the midst of the debt crisis.
Precisely, these attractive remunerations continue to attract the attention of the most conservative investors despite the fact that banks are making an effort to direct them to products such as fixed income, money and target return funds, which also represent a source of income for them. income via commissions for entities. Also because, despite the fact that the offer of deposits is beginning to pick up little by little, they are still testimonial and, most of the cases (with the exception of Wizink) did not manage to exceed 3%.
These two circumstances make individuals continue to invest in the purchase of Bills. Thus, in Madrid, for example, the first available day to open a direct account is until July 13, a date that rises to July 18 for Barcelona, while in Bilbao, Valencia and Seville the gaps Available are for the first ten days of July. As for the next auctions, in June the Treasury will appeal to the market both in the short and long term on the 6th and 13th, while in July it will be on the 4th and 11th.
Interest is prolonged after the ECB
Everything indicates that interest in Treasury Bills will continue for a few more months before the action of the European Central Bank (ECB). The person in charge of monetary policy in the euro area raised interest rates again in May until placing the price of money at 3.75%. And everything points to the fact that the European body will once again undertake new rate increases in the next meetings, given core inflation that has not yet gone down, although these increases will be at a slower rate than those already approved.
Experts estimate that interest on Treasury Bills could still pick up somewhat. Around 20-25 basis points, which would place the final return offered by the State paper at around 3.50%. This would continue to attract investors, as long as the offer of bank deposits continues to not emerge. Investing in Treasury Bills for twelve-month terms would be the best bet, since the rise in interest rates is coming to an end.
Especially when the remuneration of deposits is not expected to skyrocket in June, when the banks have returned all the TLTROS. Although the main financial entities believe that the cost of deposits will rise, it would not exceed 1%, taking into account that the beta of deposits (what they are willing to pay for fixed-term deposits) will be between 25-30 % at the end of the year.
Individuals have more bills than funds
This interest from individuals is also translated into the high volume that they already have in possession. In the first three months of the year they had 7,613 million euros invested in short-term State debt, almost twice as much as in February (specifically 106% more) and exceeds what both insurance funds have invested (2,052 million euros), investment funds (4,100 million) and insurance companies (2,190 million), as well as the Bank of Spain itself.
In fact, the bet of individuals for Treasury Bills began to accelerate in the middle of last year, coinciding with the first rise in interest rates by the ECB, but it was not until the end of the year when it stood out notably , already coinciding with returns above 2%. This has meant that in the last twelve months individuals have shot up their investment by 47.841%, since a year ago they had 16 million.
It was precisely this interest that used to see long lines of savers in front of the Bank of Spain headquarters to buy State debt and that forced the supervisory body to establish the prior appointment.