Meanwhile, in the regions, due to the characteristics of each one, the inflation rate varies. The extent to which it affects the development of Far Eastern entrepreneurship was discussed in Vladivostok by representatives of business, science and authorities, as well as Central Bank experts at public consultations organized by the Bank of Russia. The purpose of these events is to learn how society as a whole and in each particular region is related to inflation and the Central Bank’s monetary policy. The regulator’s regional branches are dedicated to monitoring the mood of entrepreneurship, using global best practices. According to Irina Karlash, head of the Russian Far Eastern State Bank, on the basis of such monitoring (it affects about 1,500 companies in the Far Eastern Federal District), final reviews on the regional economy are being prepared.
– The Okrug occupies a unique geopolitical position, it is remote from the main Western commodity markets. Its logistics and production chains have long been oriented towards the Asia-Pacific region. After the imposition of sanctions, the restructuring of logistics and commodity flows affected the macro-region less acutely than the country as a whole, and therefore inflation here was lower than in Russia as a whole. , emphasized Irina Karlash.
Among the indicators that affect business development, of course, inflation stands out. But she is not alone.
– The comparison of risks and profits gives the company an idea of whether there are prospects for development, – said Marina Shemilina, Commissioner for the Protection of Entrepreneurs’ Rights in the Primorsky Territory. – I started doing business in 1995-1996, and then inflation was high (not like now!), however, the business developed and grew. In Primorye, since 2015, there has been a positive trend in the number of SMEs, and by the end of 2020, the region entered negative territory. At the end of 2022, there was again a positive trend, although the year was extremely stressful. Predictability, the planning horizon, and cheap money are important to business.
He was supported by the chairman of the DNS group of companies Dmitry Alekseev from Vladivostok.
– For me, the slowdown in inflation is not such an important reference point, it is just a coefficient that tells how long the planning horizon of certain projects is, – Alekseev emphasized. – The uncertainty is still enough, not all crisis phenomena in the market can be influenced by the policy of the Central Bank. We notice that people have money, they spend it. Since we have businesses all over the country, we see that money has reached where it was not before. In small cities, the growth dynamics of turnover is sometimes higher than in cities with a population of more than one million. Turbulence is not so much a problem as it is a natural element for business. We live in it!
According to the businessman, low inflation is a sign that more complex projects can be entered into. At the same time, the difference between the forecast and expected inflation rate is quite large.
Dmitry Alekseev: The slowdown in inflation is just a coefficient that indicates how long the planning horizon of certain projects is
– There are many factors that influence expected inflation. It turns out that these expectations have an even more turbulent effect on her. The difference can be three times. The levers that the Central Bank has to control inflation are not “free” either and have a negative effect. Or maybe it’s better to build more realistic forecasts? In my opinion, it is logical in the current conditions not to seek to underestimate the expected inflation, – said Dmitry Alekseev.
The opinion of the developers was expressed by the general director of Specialized Developer Talan-Region 2 LLC Alexander Lyakhovenko from Khabarovsk.
– The stability in the financial market directly affects the demand, the filling of escrow accounts, which allows you to feel confident and predict the demand in the interval of two to three years, – he noted. – When inflation was stable (4 to 5 percent) from 2017 to 2021, we were able to stay within the limits of profitability. When rates started to rise rapidly, we had to stop some projects.
He suggested that the Bank of Russia find an opportunity for the Far East to support not only federal players, but also smaller local ones in order to increase competition and generally reduce the cost per square meter. In order to look more confidently into the future, according to him, preferential individual conditions will be given in terms of loans for the purchase of land and for the preparation of engineering communications for construction.
The representative of the Magadan region also asked to take into account the particularities of the Far East.
– Financial support programs in times of crisis have a rather rigid framework, and not all our companies can fulfill them, – said Maria Barzakova, deputy head of the regional fund to promote business development. – In Kolyma, only three loans have been issued with concessional financing. Meanwhile, due to complex schemes for the delivery of construction materials, our construction projects have a longer implementation period than in Russia in general. This increases the burden for businesses. For us, the reduction in lending rates is significant.
The president of the Amur branch of OPORA Rossii drew attention to one more aspect.
– The level of inflation and the key rate is important, but look at the indexation of the rates of natural monopolies. For example, in six months the cost of electricity increased by more than 20 percent, and this is included in the cost of goods and services. For energy-intensive industries, this is essential, – said Boris Beloborodov.
He also stressed that “there are key rate figures in commercial banking, but there is a real possibility of lending.” Many businessmen consider the approach of banks to assess a potential borrower too harsh, and in fact, this critical view “is partially transferred to the Bank of Russia.”
In response to a large number of proposals and wishes regarding preferences in lending, the representative of the country’s main bank, Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank, Alexei Zabotkin, explained:
– Preferential credit – part of the government’s sectoral or regional policy. There are industries that require support and, of course, there are regional specificities. But soft loans are not for everyone. An example is a preferential mortgage for all, which as a result caused prices to rise in the primary housing market. Here we need a fundamental targeting. The task of the Bank of Russia is to ensure such monetary conditions throughout the country that are conducive to sustainable development of the economy and, as a result, price stability.
By the way, the Bank of Russia has already conducted such public consultations in all federal districts of the country.
– Based on their results, we saw a general increase in the resilience of the economy to external shocks. In the Far East, there is an increase in economic activity, this is due to the redirection of traffic flows, – said Alexei Zabotkin. •
Kirill Tremasov, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank:
– When setting the inflation target, the bank takes into account a number of circumstances: the degree of confidence in monetary policy, the experience gained in inflation targeting, price volatility, inflation in countries – trading partners, the complexity of the economy. The events of 2022, the increase in uncertainty in external conditions and the start of the economic restructuring process required more significant changes in relative prices in the medium term, which made serious adjustments to the assessment of the possibility of lowering the target. in this stage. It is important to compare the level of inflation “with us and with them”, as this determines the stability of the currency market and is an important factor for long-term planning. There is no such thing as a “fair rate”, the rate is determined by the market. However, the ruble exchange rate is an important benchmark, and the Central Bank is considering whether to include the exchange rate in the forecast, as we have already done with the key exchange rate.