We were still in the early autumn of 2022 when an unofficial order issued from the Moncloa decision-making centers to the ministries, especially those of a marked economic nature, to speed up and propose as soon as possible everything that can be ‘sold’ in the second semester of the year with the ‘label’ of the European presidency, in view of the fact that it was impossible to go to the first of the year that comes the general elections, to which the Electoral Board had set the immovable deadline of December 10 .
But there was an important change in the script of that story, still not closed, and from that approach, so that no one could relax on the December holidays, it has gone on the attack: from the first justifying excuse that a rotating presidency of the EU “neither gives you nor takes anything away from you”, as has happened in France, the PSOE has come to consider this period as the key in just three months to get the chest out of European achievements, with the gas cap as its banner, the Ukraine’s war as an umbrella that justifies almost all the men in the economy and the good image that Sánchez has among his European counterparts in front of a Feijóo who tries to speed up in Brussels, but who is still new to the square.
A little less than a year ago, after the irruption of the new leader of the PP in Madrid, the economic message that was launched from its ranks and in some of its first interventions as a new candidate to lead the country was forceful, tough and well armed, on all because the threat of a severe crisis hovered over everything in the summer. The perception that ‘the worst is over’, which was predicted after the summer, has been one of the keys that have embedded the purely economic discourse of the PP, to move on to a data war in which the Government, with the Controls under control, you have more to pull from.
There is a key that the CIS reiterates in each survey and that Moncloa has now revived, given that they will be able to boast of economic achievements despite the adjustments in the coming months. What’s more, these adjustments will come in handy to transform the arguments in their favor at all times, in the absence of a catastrophic economic sentiment like the one preached by the right. The CIS data that has come true and sets the standard is the perception that, in the same way that there is a social majority that fears that things in the Spanish economy (in general) are going to get worse, there is another majority almost similar that ensures that things in your personal (particular) economic situation are not going so badly. Inflation tightens, but does not stifle, and if wages improve somewhat, everyone is happy.
In this scenario, the populist axioms against the economic management of the Government in the form of autos-da-fe no longer permeate as strongly as they did a year and a half ago, in the midst of Ayuso’s campaign against Sánchez May to get his absolute vote in Madrid. . The electoral economic war, first for the regional and municipal elections, and later for the general ones, is going to be the key to a population that every day more and more votes with their pockets. He details them in detail that one and the other know how to give to the voters to show them that their options are the best to improve their particular (not general) economic situation, they are going to be the ones that tip the balance to one side or the other, to see later until At what point is the support of the nationalists and the left, on the one hand, or that of the extreme right, on the other, necessary?
It is in this context of fighting for the individual that many mayors and regional presidents risk it, their messages differ to a great extent from those of their party at the national level, something that is seen above all in the barons of the PSOE, who do not want a vote of punishment like the one that overthrew Zapatero in the previous crisis harms them in their territories. It is not a situation that seems to worry Moncloa, whose key confrontation will be after spring. Before reaching that battlefield, the decentralized struggle of the Socialists will avoid a disaster in bastions such as Valencia, Extremadura or Castilla La Mancha, in addition to preserving power in the largest number of town halls possible.
The municipalities have become the great asset of the PP. A socialist debacle in May would destroy even the economic achievements that Sánchez can boast of, before a general election that already points more to November than December. The entrenched protests against Ayuso due to a health conflict that can cost him dearly are not the best letter of introduction. An overconfidence of the popular barons is not advisable now, with the economic discourse against it. The recourse to sedition, embezzlement and the fiasco of the ‘only if yes’ law of Sánchez’s partners remains, but that is not going to be what those who vote with their pockets think. The story changes and nobody knows who is going to eat the partridges.
