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The expected setback arrives: critical level for the S&P 500, Ibex 35, Bitcoin and gold

Date: July 13, 2024 Time: 20:23:16

Market declines provide buying opportunities. US inflation, earnings season and the conflict between Iran and Israel are a big challenge for markets after a strong first quarter. The S&P 500 has corrected almost 3% since the publication of the CPI on April 10 (+3.5%, three tenths more than in February). The 10-year bond has risen to 4.5%, Brent oil is around $90, gold is above $2,400 and the Ibex 35 has fallen 3.5%. The upward trend in the stock markets has stopped abruptly. The pillars of the bull market, earnings growth and rate cuts, are still present, but expectations need to be recalibrated in the face of possible deteriorations in investor appetite.

S&P 500

According to David Galán of Bolsageneral, the S&P 500 is going through a consolidation phase amid a solid medium- and long-term bullish trend. After reaching a small historical maximum at 5,264 points, a correction is observed in the short term, complying with two of the three bullish structures activated. According to the technical analysis, “a possible continuation of the upward trend is anticipated towards levels above 6,000 points.” Regarding support levels, he mentions that the first is around 4800 points, in the area of ​​the 200 session average.


The Ibex 35, according to Galán, shows a long-term upward trend and is seeking to recover after a brief consolidation phase. Currently, it is facing resistance at 11,140 points after recently reaching yearly highs. In terms of support, the first level is located around the 200 session average, at 10,000 points and at 9798 points. The key long-term support level is located at 8,879 points. Approximately two years ago, the Ibex 35 was valued well below its historical average in Price/Earnings (PER) terms, and although it has risen significantly since then, “it is still below its historical average,” he explains.


Eduardo Faus from Renta 4 points out that the $70,000 area is crucial, as it marks the highs reached in 2021. Exceeding this level would be very positive for the cryptocurrency, “opening the door to new records,” he points out. In the short term, he identifies the most relevant support around $60,000, closely followed by $50,000. In addition, he highlights that historically Bitcoin tends to perform well up to nine months after each halving (50% reduction in the rewards that miners receive for creating Bitcoins), and medium-term indicators suggest an “interesting bullish potential for this “e year.”


Regarding oil, Faus points out that the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) reference price, similar to that of Brent, is at significant resistance levels, close to the highs reached last year between $90 and $95 per barrel. He views this area as a key intermediate resistance zone, which could drive crude toward 2022 all-time highs of $130 per barrel. Regarding support, he highlights the importance of staying above $60-65 per barrel, as it has been a fundamental level during corrections since August 2021.


In relation to gold, Faus comments that in mid-February the price exceeded the highs of the last four years, standing around $2,100 per ounce, which marked the beginning of an upward cycle in the medium term. Currently, he considers that this area of ​​$2,100 per ounce is presented as the main support for this year in the face of possible profit taking. In the short term, he foresees a consolidation of the recent increases, since the arrival at $2,450 per ounce has occurred with high volume, indicating a buying climax and signs of overbought in some technical indicators. However, after the consolidations, Faus expects gold to continue its upward trend this year, “in a situation of free rise without historical resistance,” he points out.

* This website provides news content gathered from various internet sources. It is crucial to understand that we are not responsible for the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented Read More

Puck Henry
Puck Henry
Puck Henry is an editor for ePrimefeed covering all types of news.

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