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“The forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be exhausted in one and a half to two months”: how it can develop and when the special operation will end

Date: June 7, 2023 Time: 06:10:13

The forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be depleted in one and a half to two months.

Photo: Alexander KOTS

Igor Vittel and Ivan Pankin discussed the most striking events in and around Ukraine on Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda with the director of the Center for Military-Political Research, MGIMO Professor Alexei Podberezkin.


– The official representative of the Ministry of Defense Konashenkov said that the response to the attack on Makiivka was the destruction of more than 600 Ukrainian soldiers.

– Konashenkov does not speculate on the news. The losses suffered by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in all directions reach from 500 to 1000 people per day. I’m not talking about losses from injuries, dropouts – it’s easy to multiply by the number of days per month, it turns out 30-50 thousand per month. The NWO has been going on for more than a month and I think that the human potential in Ukraine is practically exhausted.

– To fight with Russia, you need to have a resource?

– How will Ukraine fight further? My previous assessments were such that by mid-autumn the professional army of Ukraine will dry up. Despite all his “successes”, it would seem, in Izyum and in other areas, in fact, it was very difficult. After that, they had another army practically “left”. Now, in the mobilization, they have gathered all those who can. I admit that it was possible to keep up to 15 thousand professional soldiers in the second or third echelons. These are the officers and those who have been retrained. But in any case, this is already the loss of two or three mobilizations.

– And how many people did you have before February 24?

– If Ukraine has entered into a conflict with the armed forces of 215 thousand people, then this value has been exceeded at least three times. There are estimates that speak in favor of a protracted conflict, heavy losses and even… a victory for the Ukrainian army – the Ukrainian media write a lot about this. But where is this resource? Another month, well, two. It may be enough in some operational direction for some kind of offensive. It will further deplete this resource.

– Offensive – where?

– Suppose they threaten to dismember our front in the direction of Melitopol. Let’s say that it will be possible to concentrate 15-20 thousand people there and launch them into a breakthrough. They will be destroyed in the next 40-50 hours. Then what? The human resource is not infinite. As well as the ammunition resource, which is practically exhausted. Cannon artillery resource. The number of shots is limited. Conventionally, there are 1500 shots per barrel, and then it needs to be fixed. There is no repair facility.


– Can you give a forecast about the timing of the special operation?

– This is a difficult story. I was wrong, unfortunately, a couple of times already. I said that the Ukrainian army would be practically annihilated in October, and that is exactly what happened. But a second army appeared there, and in November a third army…

– Where? Mobilizations and mercenaries and NATO weapons?

– Both this and that. NATO deliveries in the total volume of weapons make up 20 percent.Let the weapons be different, from different states, but all the same, they are high-precision weapons, effective. And few people expected such a number of mercenaries. As mercenaries, professional armed formations are already acting, I think, not only in Poland, but also in Romania. Maybe other states.

– How organized are they?

– This force is well organized. There are 10-12 thousand mercenaries there. It is clear that with this number you will not win. In general, you will not win with mercenaries – there is no interspecific interaction and no capacity for large-scale operations. But their share is increasing in different directions. Therefore, I think that another resource will last one and a half to two months.

Political analyst Podberezkin believes that the special operation in Ukraine will end in March 2023. Photo: Anna Isakova / press service of the State Duma of the Russian Federation / TASS

– That is, it turns out that until the end of March.

– My forecast is that in two months there will be nothing to fight. And no one.

– So what’s next?

– Also – a political question. Under what conditions to trade? Either it will be capitulation, or it will be negotiations, in fact, some kind of compromise, or something else.

– In the West they say they can’t lose. Does this mean that NATO will enter into a showdown?

– Talking is not doing. Scholz, Stoltenberg and others like them have nothing to do with the armed forces, and even more so with the planning of military operations. They are irresponsible people, and they can say what they want.


– What conclusions should our leadership draw after the attack on Makiivka?

– My personal and subjective opinion is that. A reinforced mobilization is needed in all directions. Including from the point of view of the organization of the armed forces. Not all is well there in terms of supplying the armed forces. There are problems in the organization of the military-industrial complex. At the same time, fantastic efforts are being made in the defense industry. I am delighted with these people, about whom very little is said. They, despite all the persecution of the 90s, when 85% of the Russian defense industry was destroyed, were able to do a lot. Now there is an accelerated process of restoring the capabilities of the Russian military-industrial complex.

– But this recovery did not start yesterday?

– This trend began to gain strength only in the fall, really.

– Everyone cares about the result.

– We do not have the opportunity to stop halfway and agree on some kind of compromise. But we cannot have a compromise with the West. We just have to defeat him by force. When an armed struggle begins, all political arguments must be put aside, they get in the way. Your turn will come when you finish the special operation. Therefore, we have no choice.


– And what is the balance of power between Russia and NATO? Do we have a chance to win?

– There is a wrong attitude towards the analysis of the correlation of forces. When it comes to comparing GDP, military spending, and this is easy to extrapolate to the military power of the state.

– This is not true.

– No. In fact, there are 15 times more GDP, if we take the collective West. 15 times more military spending. But this does not mean that military power is 15 times greater. There is no direct relationship. Well, for example, the Almaz Antey concern, this year will produce about one and a half to two times more air defense systems than the entire collective West.

– Do we have objective information about the enemy’s weapons?

– When they started the special operation with Ukraine, according to our estimates, they had 150 combat aircraft. Now we are talking about 350 planes shot down. Where did that extra 200 come from? They had 60 air defense brigades there, only the S-300, they got it from the Soviet Army. And how come it seems that we have already destroyed not 60, but more than a hundred air defense brigades? So tell me how many are left? It is necessary to talk about such things, otherwise doubts arise about the sincerity and accuracy of the information …

– When Finland and Sweden join NATO, will it affect the security of our country?

– The border will increase by a thousand kilometers. In World War II, Germany and Finland closed our exit to the Baltic in general. There were three or four mining lines along the Gulf of Finland. And our Baltic Fleet was inactive during the war. The same may be true now.

– We wanted to push NATO away, but in the end we pushed it forward?

– I met about two years ago with the former head of intelligence of the European Union, by the way, a Finnish rear admiral. More than 1,500 bilateral and multilateral agreements between the US and NATO have been concluded with Finland. Therefore, they were already there, in the alliance: Finland and Sweden. There are two blocks. A narrow military-political bloc with strict obligations is NATO, 30 states. And about 30 more states in one way or another affiliated with this bloc. This is the collective west. we are fighting them…

– Is it true that Poland is muddying the waters, while the rest of NATO does not want a conflict with Russia? And, if Kyiv’s forces run out in March, Warsaw will step in; After all, the West doesn’t need to stop the conflict, does it?

– The most unpleasant situation can be a long truce. There are many frozen conflicts in the world. There are about 30 states in the world, not only Cyprus, Transnistria, Karabakh. Many last decades. And in Ukraine there may be one of these options. But it won’t work for us.


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Puck Henry
Puck Henry
Puck Henry is an editor for ePrimefeed covering all types of news.

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