The recovery of the Ibex 35 has tourism companies as its protagonist. Not only have they become the engine of the main Spanish stock market index, but they have managed to maintain their leadership since the start of the year. The sector has settled on the podium thanks to the favorable winds that have blown after three consecutive exercises of shocks and managed to squeeze the dog’s strategy. The last bleeding occurred last year, when the increase in their leverage put them in the spotlight due to the increase in financing costs.
The scenario has completely changed and its recovery relegates banking to the background, in which investors had high expectations, precisely because of the rise in interest rates. However, the bleeding that entities have suffered since mid-March has forced them to cede the baton to tourist values, which are registering double-digit revaluations. The baton of the Spanish stock market reference is currently headed by Amadeus (+37.7%), IAG (+28.5%) and Aena (27.8%), which are positioned as the most bullish members of the Ibex 35 so far this year, with market closing data this Tuesday. Meliá completes the sectoral branch, which is in sixth place by revaluation (+19.8), only behind Inditex (+24.3%) and Cellnex Telecom (+23.5%).
The push helps them regain some stock market breath after several exercises in the desert, although none has yet managed to exceed pre-pandemic levels and some of them are even trading below what they were before the Russian invasion. Ukraine in February 2022, which led to equities suffering one of the worst exercises in decades. In this sense, Amadeus manages to librarianize after moving above the strip in which he found himself a year ago. Specifically, the titles of the provider of technological services for the travel industry are revalued by 11% compared to what they marked the day before the outbreak of the war at the gates of Europe, up to 66.88 euros.
This puts it within 10% of touching the price it marked at the beginning of February 2020, just before the pandemic fever infected the index. Despite this, the company run by Luis Maroto has found the support of the market, which has even pushed it above the twelve-month potential given by the ‘Bloomberg’ consensus and has begun to overprice. In practice, this means that its shares are paid 0.2% more than what the investment bank considers, which gives it a target price of 66.7 euros.
It is followed by Aena, which has also managed to exceed the threshold that it registered fifteen months ago by 4.7% and goes from 143.25 to 150 euros, but corrects more than 10% from the weeks before they were activated. the alarms due to the Covid health emergency, a figure that can be touched if the twelve-month path given by analysts is confirmed, since they place the share slightly above 165 euros. IAG has not had the same luck, which is still at 5.3% of the 1.88 euros recorded on February 23, 2022 and would need to overcome more than 60% to return to the ‘old normal’. Something that seems unlikely in the short term, with a potential of almost 30% from the 1.89 euros in which it is installed.
In parallel, the ‘acceleration’ experienced by Meliá has not been enough to reach the pre-Covid barrier from the 5.4 euros at which it moves. One day before unleashing the conflict in Ukraine, he was moving at 7 euros, when he was only 6.6% back from the long-awaited threshold of the beginning of 2020 (7.5 euros). Despite the fact that he has room to rebound almost another 20%, if obtained, it would not be enough to reach that level. The Good Progress That These Companies Have Registered Since The Start Of The Year “Picks Up The Good Expectations” Presented By The Sector In Sector A SEASON YU n exercise that aims to be good and that can be the first in three exercises that can be compared with the 2019 -last full year without Covid- after the World Health Organization (WHO) has already decreed the end of the health emergency.
After passing the filter of the results of the first quarter, in which Aena and Amadeus are on the brink of recovering the profit prior to the coronavirus, IAG returns to reap profits between January and March for the first time in four years, while Meliá remains On the verge of abandoning losses, analysts are cautious and opt to “see” their volume of activity for a quarter, highly conditioned by the evolution of the economy. The excessive indebtedness that they have incurred to circumvent the restrictions is one of the points that plays against them now that interest rates have reached the maximum of the decade in the euro area.
The XTB analyst, Joaquín Robles, calls for avoiding comparing the income of 2019 with that of this year, since the balance of the companies “is not as healthy” and also the rates are affected by the rebound in the inflation. In the stock market panorama, it should be noted that these are cyclical values to which Robles gives a “limited” evolution after the ‘rally’ they have experienced in recent months. In fact, his trajectory may be altered if the economic outlook begins and fears of a slowdown or recession materialize, even though they are currently at “interesting” levels. “Tourism lives under the possibility of that black cloud,” adds Robles. A situation that, if they realize it, can take them further away from the pre-Covid prices.