Light and shadows in the revision of the economic expectations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The leader that the organization Kristalina Georgieva has raised -again- her forecasts for the Spanish economy, but has noted that processes of political instability are not usually positive for the economy. She now expects the Spanish economy to grow by 2.5% this year; one point more than in her April estimate, although the lack of government could take its toll on this dynamism. For 2024, the estimate remains unchanged, at 2%.
“In general, instability is never good for the economy, but I think we have to wait and see how the process ends and where the Spanish people want to go with the results of these elections,” said the director of the IMF’s Research Department, Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, in an interview with EFE, who, however, highlighted the “strong resilience” of the country, where the good evolution of tourism has been key to improvement. The fund also views the drop in inflation positively; something in which it helps that the salary review is being “moderated”. For the IMF this is a good measure when what is sought is to control the evolution of the CPI.
Pensions, a key reform
Tourism would be the main reason behind the upward revision of the GDP estimate for this year, although the estimate for the following year remains stagnant, at 2%. The forecasts have been elaborated before the general elections of the past 23-J and this increase does not prevent the organization from remembering that Spain still has pending accounts in terms of reforms. According to Gourinchas, one of them is the pension system. In his opinion, they should prevent the system from having “unfunded liabilities” and make the system not only for current generations but also for future ones.
In this system, and also somewhat following the line set by the European Commission, the IMF advocates that Spain progressively withdraw some support measures, such as specific aid against rising energy prices. At the moment, support for the transport sector has an extension until the end of the year, although it will moderate in September.
The IMF has not only improved its estimates for Spain, it has also done so for the world economy as a whole, which now stands at 3%; two tenths above their April estimates. That of 2024 remains unchanged; in 3%.