“Our expectations regarding the pause of the Central Bank in the regulation of monetary policy were justified and coincided with the majority of experts. Taking into account the current data on the dynamics of inflation and the continued high level of inflation expectations among the population and companies, the decision to make monetary policy more flexible was “This is not considered by analysts or the market. There are reasons for further tightening and they are also not observed,” said Pavel Verevkin, investment strategist at ALOR BROKER, in conversation with RG.
According to the investment strategist, the regulator’s decision should not have a significant impact on the national currency, because the exchange rate remained the same, which means that there are no risks of a decrease in the money supply.
“If the Central Bank had increased the exchange rate, the ruble would have strengthened and, consequently, if the exchange rate had been reduced, the ruble would have reacted in the same way as it strengthened. Meanwhile, in the future, at the end of the year And most likely, already in the second half of the year we assume that the exchange rate will drop, presumably to 10%, so the weakening of the ruble is a matter of time,” Verevkin believes.
Investment strategist of Arikapital Management Company, associate professor of the Financial University of the Government of the Russian Federation, Sergei Suverov, agreed that the decision of the Central Bank to maintain the key interest rate at 16% was expected and will not have a big short-term impact on the ruble exchange rate.
“On the other hand, the Central Bank’s decision shows that the monetary policy tightening cycle is probably over and we will see a lower key rate at the end of the year. All things being equal, this is a negative factor for the ruble, since that high rates are one of the most important factors supporting it,” – said Suverov.
Nikolai Dudchenko, an analyst at the Finam financial group, stated that the ruble exchange rate reacted to the meeting quite neutrally. Among the factors that will support the ruble in the near future, included a high key exchange rate, an improvement in the trade balance situation, as well as the actions of the Central Bank and companies to sell foreign currency on the open market.
Anna Romanenko, director of the communication policy department of the financial market Vyberu.ru, for her part, believes that the tough stance of the Central Bank has a positive effect on the ruble exchange rate, which is also supported by the sale of currencies within the framework of the budget rule and the increase in oil prices.
“The reaction of the ruble will largely depend on the rhetoric of the Central Bank: normally, the stricter it is, the greater the likelihood that the national currency will strengthen. We can expect small fluctuations in the exchange rate, but it will soon stabilize. ”Romanenko concluded.
