University of Western Ontario astrophysicist Paul Wiegert has presented a study in The Planetary Science Journal in which he assessed the probability of a collision between the asteroid Apophis and Earth. According to the researcher, it turned out to be slightly higher than previously thought.
As Phys.org writes, unlike previous studies, Paul Wiegert in his calculations took into account the factor of a random collision of Apophis with another space object, as a result of which the trajectory of the asteroid may change.
Astronomers first noticed Apophis in 2004. This object was immediately classified as potentially dangerous for Earth. On the Turin danger scale, Apophis received 4 points, and this remains the highest point in a kind of asteroid danger classification.
Previous studies have shown that Apophis, whose diameter is estimated to be between 305 and 340 meters, will fly by Earth in 2029 and again in 2036 and 2068. If it collides with our planet, it will leave a crater about 10 kilometers in diameter.
In his research, Wiegert examined the probability of Apophis colliding with a smaller object, which could cause a change in its course. Calculations have shown that even an object measuring just 0.6 meters in diameter can deviate Apophis from its current course.
And if a rock 3.4 metres in diameter hits an asteroid, the force of the impact will be enough to set Apophis on course for Earth, and this could happen in 2029.
To test his theory, Wiegert examined a database of meteorites, including those objects with a diameter of at least 3.4 meters that collide with Earth every year. It turned out that the probability of such an object colliding with Apophis is quite small. Moreover, the collision must occur at the “right angle.”
Wiegert estimated the probability of such a development at 1 in 2 billion. And the probability of such a collision causing a subsequent impact on Earth is 1 in 1 million. However, Wiegert’s research slightly increased the probability of Apophis colliding with Earth compared to previous estimates.
