After the Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy system, there is no longer any talk of a complete restoration of power in Kyiv and other large cities.
Photo: REUTERS
After the Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy system, there is no longer any talk of a complete restoration of power in Kyiv and other large cities. The “square” authorities are trying to “patch holes” by diverting electricity from one region to another, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to solve problems in this way. Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Fund for Energy Security, an expert at the Financial University, said this on the air of Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda.
The presenters spoke with Yushkov on Monday, December 19, when information was received about new attacks on energy facilities in the capital of Ukraine and the Kyiv region.
– The US space agency NASA has published a satellite image of Earth, which shows the absence of light in Ukraine after the Russian attacks on December 16. The photo is dated December 17, Ukraine in complete darkness. Igor Valeryevich, what do they have time to restore in the same Kyiv? In general, is it possible to have time to restore something, or are talks about eliminating the consequences just words, attempts by Mayor Klitschko to calm people down?
– Of course, this is also an attempt to reassure the townspeople. Information reaches the Ukrainian population in doses, because the Kyiv authorities cannot say: yes, everything was bombed here, there is nothing left. This will immediately cause panic. Therefore, they say: everything is fine, now we will restore everything. And then, during the next strikes, even if they were launched not on the infrastructure, but on some other objects, the population is given the following information: here we have another accident, and here. That is, information about the amount of damage and about what kind of heat supply, water supply, power supply will be released to the public gradually.
At the same time, it is quite clear that the cumulative effect of very large strikes will not be able to fully restore the infrastructure. Rather, it makes sense to talk about whether it will be possible to maintain at least some schedule for power supply, whether it will be possible to maintain heat supply, etc. Even in Kyiv, in many districts, it is rather a question of whether the population will be able to spend at least a few hours a day with electricity, or all the electricity will have to be delivered exclusively for infrastructure: for the operation of a water system supply, sewage and, most importantly, heat supply.
That is, it will not be possible to fully restore the power supply on the scale of Kyiv and the region, there is nothing to think about. Now the authorities are trying to ensure the flow from neighboring regions, where possible. But there are fewer and fewer such opportunities. They are also trying to power the same water services and heat supply systems with diesel generators. The situation is aggravated by the fact that it is getting colder and the demand for energy is growing. Therefore, of course, the Kyiv situation is getting worse and worse.
– By light – yes, we see images from space, a dark spot. What about your gasoline?
– We saw only one hit to the objects of the Ukrainian gas industry. In one of the waves of strikes, there were targeted attacks on the gas infrastructure in the Kharkiv region. But otherwise the gas industry is not the target of Russian attacks. In this regard, the gas balance in Ukraine may gradually converge. Because at the beginning of the year its consumption was 30 billion cubic meters per year, and its own production was 20 billion cubic meters. Now production there has practically stopped, there is almost no industry as a consumer. This means that they can conclude that consumption will drop to the same 20 billion cubic meters that they produce. They will be self-sufficient. It certainly doesn’t make it any easier for them. But, perhaps, they somehow pass it off as their own achievement. However, there is a nuance: gas production is mainly concentrated in the Kharkiv region and in western Ukraine, near the border. And the question is, will they be able to deliver gas, for example, from Western Ukraine throughout the territory?
– Speaking of gasoline. The European Union writes that it will discuss lowering the proposed cap on gas prices to 188 euros for 1 megawatt/hour. What does it say? Are people trying to slow down the market economy?
– Indeed, they have been creating these exchanges for decades, and they told us that the fairest price is there. They even forced Gazprom to rewrite the contracts with all the European companies so that the link was not with the cost of oil, but with the price of gas in those same exchanges. And now they say: you know, we don’t like it when the exchange is expensive, so now we will set the maximum level that we are willing to pay. But for them, the main risk is that now they will set a low ceiling in Europe, while in Asia prices will rise, and all tankers will turn around and go to Asia, because it is more profitable to sell there. They are afraid of this, and therefore cannot agree on which week. Here, by the way, it is very important that we are not talking about Russian gas, but about gas in general. That is, these are not sanctions against Russia, this is precisely an instrument of European influence on the market. And it scares them. Now you will start to interfere in the market, companies will not like it, everyone who can will go to Asian markets. And it turns out that you wanted gasoline to be cheaper, but in reality you will get an even bigger deficit.