“This is due to the fact that from January 13, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance of Russia, under the updated budget rule, began to sell foreign currency to offset oil and gas revenues,” he told Rossiyskaya. BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov. gazette.
According to him, the ruble received additional support from the sale of accumulated foreign exchange earnings by exporters to pay taxes. The dollar exchange rate fell to 67.08 rubles, the euro to 72.44 rubles, the yuan to 9.97 rubles.
“The Ministry of Finance will sell the yuan for the equivalent of 3.2 billion rubles daily until February 6. With a decrease in the main trading volumes, the Central Bank may cause a change at the beginning of the main trading session. If he increases the supply of foreign exchange from exporters, then ruble pairs can immediately show price fluctuations of 2-3% in favor of the ruble,” the expert noted.
Vladislav Antonov recalled that at the end of 2022, the Chinese authorities announced the lifting of anti-COVID restrictions. In this regard, market participants expect an increase in demand for oil in the country, which will lead to an increase in oil prices on the world market. And then the connection begins: the recovery of oil prices will increase the foreign exchange earnings of exporters and support the ruble.
Given the growing budget deficit and the proximity of the tax payment peak (January 25), the foreign exchange market maintains a balance between supply and demand. Until the end of January, it is unlikely that anything will change.
“We expect that in the third decade of the month, the dollar/ruble pair will continue to move between the levels of 67.50 and 71.00 rubles, the euro/ruble – between 72 and 75 rubles, the yuan/ruble – between 9.95 and 10.30 rubles , – “The Russian currency may approach the lower limits of the ranges closest to the peak of tax payments if there is a weak demand for currency from buyers,” the expert predicts.