The wave of upward revisions to GDP that has occurred in recent weeks supports the scenario that the Government presented in the latest Stability Program sent to Brussels, which forecast a 2.1% rise in GDP this year. The pull of the foreign sector -with a record level of exports up to March and the strength of tourism- and the good progress of investment have led to more positive figures in the first part of the year, despite the fact that in the indicators for the month of June Yes, they are beginning to show the first symptoms of exhaustion, as the data on Social Security affiliations confirmed a few days ago. All in all, the main similar national and international organizations, as well as private study services, draw a scenario of very characteristics.
The latest to join this list was the Esade economic policy study center (EsadeEcPol), which this Thursday pointed out that activity will grow in a range between 1.9 and 2.1% this year, and confirms that, although the evolution has been positive in the first semester, everything indicates that the second will be weaker. Its real-time growth model points to an advance of 0.6% between April and June. Professor Manuel Hidalgo has pointed out that “there are elements that make us think that this growth is not as positive as we would like”, such as the contraction of private consumption or the impact of interest rates on residential investment.
From his point of view, special attention will have to be paid in the coming months to how the first of these variables evolves, household consumption – the greatest effect on the real economy of the rate hike that has been applied to date will be perceived in 2024 – and how the rest of the European economies that constitute, in fact, our main trading partners, behave. Hidalgo believes that Spain can better face the tightening of monetary policy thanks to the fact that its level of indebtedness is lower now than during the last financial crisis and thanks, also, to the change in mortgages that has allowed fixed-rate mortgages to gain I weigh the last few years.
However, it does not rule out possible negative consequences among the most vulnerable in a context in which the rapid disinflation process will be cut short in the coming months due to the base effect, which will row against it, which will raise the general rate by a few points. percentages, although he rules out that the rebound will cause the CPI to exceed 4 or 5%.
The wave of upward revisions to GDP
Esade’s calculations are somewhat less optimistic than those of BBVA Research, which point to an increase of 2.4% this year (the most optimistic estimate) or those of the Bank of Spain. The body led by Pablo Hernández de Cos places the increase in GDP at 2.3% this year.
