Yaroslavl. Manufacture of tires in the team of JSC “Yaroslavl Tire Plant”.
Photo: Vladimir VELENGURIN
The business activity index in Russia reached its maximum in the last 6 years. This conclusion was made by the experts of the global analytical agency S&P Global. In January 2023, this figure was 52.6 points and in February it rose to 53.6. And anything above 50 indicates an increase in economic activity.
“The data indicates a solid recovery in the Russian manufacturing sector,” analysts say.
According to the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, growth will continue. For example, already this year the production of agricultural machinery is expected to increase by 5%. And by 2030, the volume of production in the electronics industry can grow 2.5 times, and in the civil sector, growth is expected to be even more noticeable – five times: from 940 billion rubles to 4.6 trillion. rubles. The highest rates are expected in radio electronics, here the volumes will grow 17 times by 2030.
And this despite the fact that the main foreign companies left the country, there are practically no industries that have not been subjected to harsh sanctions. What is the secret of our growth?
– First of all, import substitution is taking place, for this it is necessary to activate industrial assets, – economist Denis Raksha explained to KP.RU. – Secondly, it is necessary to produce products for the Northern Military District, and, moreover, it is not just about weapons. This gives an increase in industry indicators and an increase in the business confidence index. The volume of orders and their degree of stability are becoming clearer, hence the understanding of how much can be invested in development, modernization, re-equipment of production, training of personnel, etc. And those industries that have suffered from sanctions or the direct withdrawal of foreign companies from the Russian market, for example, the automotive industry, occupy a very small share in the general structure of the industry. And the growth of other sectors more than compensates for the fall of these.
According to the expert, in 2022, the sanctions caused some damage to the Russian economy on the one hand, but on the other hand, they forced them to actively engage in import substitution.
– Formally, we have been engaged in import substitution since 2014, – recalled Raksha. – But only last year they began to actively do it, realizing the vital need for such actions. This process has just begun and will continue to grow. In effect, the sanctions stimulated industrial production. Absolutely direct dependency: we were blocked from supplying components; we are forced to find these components in other countries or produce them ourselves.
It is noteworthy that the current leap of the national industry turned out to be so powerful that it exceeded not only the low figures of last year, but also the quite successful results of the previous 5 years.