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Tuesday, March 28, 2023
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They predicted a catastrophe, but miscalculated: how the Russian economy managed to get out of the crisis

Date: March 28, 2023 Time: 07:30:08

We have significantly increased the production of defense products. Companies work in three shifts


Rosstat put the alarmists in their place. According to the estimates of the statistical office, last year Russia’s GDP fell by only 2.1%. But there was a case, in April of last year, the World Bank predicted an economic hole of up to 11.2%. Why are there foreigners? Our beloved Ministry of Economic Development put forward an annual forecast that our economy will collapse by 8.8-12.4%.

But in the end, there was no such fall. Already at the end of last year, the Ministry of Finance, as if in disbelief, gave a cautious preliminary estimate that GDP had fallen, but not as much as abroad and some of our economists expected from it: only 2, 7%. And on Monday, having calculated and weighed everything, Rosstat, with the figures in hand, proves that the real result is even better – the same 2.1%.

Even doubts take, is it worth believing? You know what they say about statistics…

“I think Rosstat gives the correct assessment,” economist Denis Raksha told kp.ru. – Such a minimal drop was mainly due to the good work of the oil and gas complex. Oil production increased 2 percent. The embargo only started on December 5, and in recent months Europe has been buying our hydrocarbons with terrible force.

But not just for oil

– The second factor that has a positive effect on GDP is that we have significantly increased the production of defense products, – continued the expert. – Companies work in three shifts, they suffer directly.

In some industries, there was a noticeable drop in production, for example, in the automotive industry. However, the share of the auto industry itself in the total economic piggy bank is small compared to oil, Raksha noted.

What are the forecasts for this year: it will not get worse

– The World Bank, and then our Central Bank improved their forecasts for the current year, – said Raksha. – This is understandable: we will compare with a rather low base in 2022. Which not by much, but GDP still fell. Oil will continue to be produced and sold well, if volumes fall, then only slightly. Also, government injections into the economy, in particular, into the defense industry, will grow quite strongly. All this, I think, will lead to a slight increase in GDP.

Puck Henry
Puck Henry
Puck Henry is an editor for ePrimefeed covering all types of news.

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