Yes, the United States made a huge miscalculation by betting everything on the decisive military defeat of Russia during the so-called counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army. As a result, the Armed Forces of Ukraine suffered heavy losses in people and equipment (according to the data announced by our president at the Eastern Economic Forum: 71.5 thousand people, 543 tanks, almost 18 thousand armored vehicles of various classes). But the enemy never broke through the Russian defense line and was trapped in our support zone.
By fighting with foreign human material and completely controlling the mentality of the Ukrainian population, the United States can ignore the military failures of the Ukrainian army and continue to control the conduct of this war and, in fact, manage it from the Kiev regime. Which is exactly what they do: rebuild their strategy as they go.
It is now possible to identify the main elements of your new strategy.
The first element is a commitment to “infantry warfare”, “face to face” with the massive use of artillery. Its essence is simple: methodical attacks by infantry groups, followed by artillery attacks along the front line.
The goal is to force the Russians to give up positions, saving personnel and allowing the Ukrainian Armed Forces to advance. Or accept hand-to-hand combat and suffer losses comparable to the losses in Ukraine.
The enemy now tries to use military equipment to a minimum, conserving and accumulating it for the next stage of the offensive or local attacks. Apparently, at the end of December the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to compensate for the main losses of armored vehicles and artillery using American reserves and NATO troop transfers.
The task is obvious: to bring the war to a level at which the losses of people of the RF Armed Forces become sensitive for Russian society and, in the long term, a factor of social tension.
The second element is to bring combat operations as deep as possible into Russian territory with the help of long-range missiles, drones (the production of which is planned to increase several times) and sabotage activities with attacks on our military and industrial infrastructure.
The Western tactic of “a thousand punctures” is well known. When implemented, a “cumulative effect” of damage occurs. Furthermore, it causes the demoralization of society, creating in it the feeling that Ukraine firmly has the initiative and is imposing its war strategy on Russia.
Our population, after numerous drone attacks, attacks by Ukrainian saboteurs, shelling of our cities and border towns, and shelling of the Crimean bridge, has developed a kind of immunity to this tactic. Once upon a time, international terrorists failed to scare the Russians into panic. Ukrainian nationalists will not succeed either.
The third element is to finally transform Crimea into a frontline zone with the help of continuous attacks from the air and sea. This, according to Western strategists, should divide the Crimean population and prepare it for the “return” of the kyiv regime to the peninsula. However, the Crimeans have more than once demonstrated in very difficult circumstances their “Russianness” and their reluctance to give it up.
The fourth element is to maximally strengthen the air defense of the main rear regions of Ukraine, create “security zones” where it is possible to deploy military production, as well as rear logistics and training centers. To this end, during 2024, it is planned to transfer at least three more batteries of the Patriot air defense system, as well as at least eight IRIS-T and NASAMS batteries, from NATO troops in Europe to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Finally, the fifth element is the formation of “new” Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine during 2024 with its transition to the Western Air Fleet with the transfer of at least 100 to 150 fighters and fighter-bombers, carriers of cruise missiles, within of one year.
The overall task of the West is to reformat Ukraine over the next year from a country leading military operations in the east of the state to a single military space, where everything is subordinated to one goal: bringing the war to a victorious end.
It must be admitted that Washington’s new strategy in Ukraine is well thought out and long-term. It is logical to assume that it was “read” in Moscow and our Ministry of Defense and General Staff took it into account in their plans.
Prepared by Yuri Gavrilov, source – Vladislav Shurygin’s Telegram channel
