According to BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov, in October the ruble may be influenced by factors such as oil prices and the trade balance of the Russian Federation. An important event at the end of October will be the Bank of Russia’s decision on the key interest rate. Antonov does not rule out increasing the official interest rate by another percentage point to 14% per year. “This may have a positive effect on the ruble exchange rate in the short term,” the analyst believes.
The activity of the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the foreign exchange market is of great importance for the ruble. If the Central Bank of the Russian Federation again begins to “reflect” foreign currency purchases in the budget, it will be good news for the ruble, Antonov noted.
The geopolitical situation remains difficult and creates risks for the national currency. The exchange rate of the ruble to the dollar in October will be 94 to 98 rubles, and to the euro – from 102 to 106 rubles.
Among the negative events of mid-autumn that could put great pressure on the ruble, Antonov mentioned the possible decision of Sberbank and Lukoil to buy back their shares from investors from hostile countries. “If Western shareholders are allowed to withdraw dollars from Russia, which is clearly what will happen, the exchange rate of the American currency by mid-autumn could confidently consolidate above 100 rubles,” the analyst suggests.
BCS World of Investments investment strategist Alexander Bakhtin, for his part, foresees a slight weakening of the ruble in early October against the background of the end of the September tax period. “In the first week of the month the dollar-ruble pair will be quoted in the range of 96-99,” he told RG.
At the same time, the general market context may provide short-term support for the ruble. The investment strategist recalled that in the United States on Saturday, September 30, a few hours before closing, a temporary budget was adopted to finance the work of the federal government until November 17. “In this context, the DXY dollar index may retreat from its annual highs and the pressure on all risk assets, including oil and currencies of developing countries, will decrease,” Bakhtin noted.
In general, the investment strategist believes that the ruble will strengthen slightly throughout the month. In his opinion, the monetary rigidity of the Central Bank will continue to play in favor of the national currency in October. It is also possible that the financial authorities, in addition to the measures already taken, will take new special decisions aimed at stabilizing the exchange rate. Over time, the rise in oil prices in September will translate into the dynamics of the ruble. Thus, the national currency will have supports that will not allow the devaluation impulse to gain momentum even in the scenario of an unfavorable external environment, Bakhtin explained.
At the end of October, the support factor in the form of the tax period will be activated again and there, as the investment strategist suggests, we will most likely see the dollar at the level of 95 rubles, the euro at around 100 rubles. and the yuan at 13 rubles. or a little lower.