Ruble
Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank:
– The ruble weakened after the results of the last six weeks in a row. We believe that the ruble may break this trend in the next week and strengthen moderately. The estimated trading range is 74-78 against the dollar, 78-82 against the euro, 10.8-11.2 against the yuan.
In the first half of the week, the ruble will be supported by the tax period: exporters will be more active in selling currencies and buying rubles for budget settlements. Russian companies must pay mineral extraction tax, VAT, personal income tax and insurance premiums by February 28.
Also in favor of the ruble there may be a decrease in geopolitical uncertainty and a decrease in demand for the currency as insurance. The message of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly passed without negative surprises for the markets. The US, EU and G7 countries have announced new sanctions against Russia, but they also generally met investor expectations.
Finally, foreign exchange interventions within the framework of the fiscal rule can help stabilize the ruble exchange rate. The Ministry of Finance until March 6 sells yuan in the amount of 8.9 billion rubles per day to make up for the shortfall in budget revenue.
On Friday, March 3, the Ministry of Finance will announce new parameters for interventions from March 7, and we believe that the volume of yuan sales may increase further. This will reduce the negative effect for the ruble of the decline in oil.
Oil
Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of the Zenit bank:
– The oil market continues with a slight downward correction in a context of a global flight of investors from risk.
Tightening rhetoric from individual members of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) raises the chances of a higher value of the Fed’s base interest rate this year, which will limit oil demand . Also, during periods of selling risky assets, the US currency traditionally shows strength, which does not contribute to the growth of oil prices. Data on global industrial activity in February did not inspire investors, the pace of recovery slowed, especially in the larger economies of the EU and Japan.
For the oil market, the $80-85 per barrel range for Brent is still relevant.
Exchange
Valery Emelyanov, stock market expert at BCS World of Investments:
– The Russian market at the close of Friday was trading in the red zone. The main negative is associated with the fall of foreign sites, where profit-taking has lasted throughout the week, as well as the news about new sanctions.
In rubles, the picture is less negative, which is due to the softening effect of the weakening of the Russian currency. All major pairs (dollar, euro and yuan) show growth against the ruble.
At the beginning of next week, with a high probability, volatility and trading volumes will continue to grow. The long weekend effect will no longer stop sellers and buyers. We may well see market fluctuations in the Moscow Stock Exchange index in the range of 2170-2230 points.
