Ruble
Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank:
– We expect the ruble to trade in the range of 74-78 per dollar, 79-83 per euro and 10.8-11.3 per yuan next week.
Last week the February tax period ended, when exporters are actively selling currencies, and until the last week of March, the ruble lost this support factor.
In favor of the ruble, there will still be foreign exchange interventions under the budget rule to make up for the shortfall in budget oil and gas revenues. Starting March 7, the Ministry of Finance will reduce daily sales of yuan by 39%, to 5.4 billion rubles.
In addition, the pressure on the ruble eased somewhat after Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced that tax revenue in the first two months of the year exceeded 5 trillion rubles and turned out to be more than last year.
Negative factors for the ruble remain the risks of a worsening geopolitical situation and expectations of a reduction in exports due to sanctions, combined with a gradual recovery in imports due to the restructuring of supply chains from the West. to this.
Oil
Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of the Zenit bank:
– The negative beginning of the week in the oil market translated into an increase in prices for its closing. Investors’ flight from risk has also affected the commodity market. The tightening of signals from the US Federal Reserve affected expectations for economic activity and demand for raw materials.
However, the positive statistics of the Chinese economy, which indicate a faster recovery, managed to return prices to the upper limit of the short-term range. In particular, China’s industrial sector activity index in February grew at the highest rate in the last 11 years. If market participants receive additional confirmation that the recovery momentum in China is holding up even without additional stimulus measures from the authorities, this may be the reason for the continued growth in oil prices.
Against this background, US industry statistics seem secondary. The increase in commercial oil reserves slightly exceeded market expectations, while total production remained flat. Given the potential continued support for the oil market from Chinese demand, as well as some dovishness in the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) rhetoric in recent days, the oil market may continue to grow. . The closest targets may be $87 and $90 a barrel of Brent.
Exchange
Vasily Karpunin, Head of the Information and Analytical Content Department, BCS World of Investments:
– If the geopolitical situation does not worsen, next week the Russian market may well resume its rise. Just as it happened after the sanctions. According to the Moscow Stock Exchange index, medium-term targets may be in the region of 2340-2380 points.
Among the individual stocks, one can highlight the shares of exporters that benefited from the past weakening of the ruble, but have not yet listed it. For example, a positive opinion on Severstal, MMK, NLMK, Raspadskaya and Mechel. For steel producers, expectations of strong domestic price dynamics for steel products also act as an additional factor.
Russian issuers continue to publish financial results for 2022. Of the closest reports from large companies, we can highlight Rusagro (March 6), Sberbank (March 9), TMK (March 10), TCS Group (March 15) , VK, Polymetal, Raspadskaya (March 16), X5 Group (March 16). 17).
This week there was information about the first weekly deflation since September of last year. The figures are moderately positive for the stock and bond market, although it must be borne in mind that the weekly statistics are very “noisy”. However, the continuation of the trend towards a moderate dynamics of the consumer price index may prevent the Bank of Russia from raising the key rate at the next meeting in mid-March. Inflation statistics are published on Wednesdays.
