“Today, the practical predictability of the weather has increased to seven days. And this is great progress,” Roman Vilfand, scientific director of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center, told Rossiyskaya Gazeta. “Yes, today there are supercomputers to build mathematical algorithms . and satellites, and radar, and telecommunications, but all this will not work without scientists, it is up to them to turn all the information received with the help of modern technologies into a weather forecast.
The scientist points out that the forecasting equations do not have an exact solution. Therefore, so-called numerical methods or approximate methods of integration are used. In the atmosphere, some processes are constantly taking place, something is changing. All this is tracked by satellites and transferred to a supercomputer for processing. It incorporates climate change models.
According to the preliminary forecast, February will be colder than usual in almost all of Russia: in Krasnodar and Moscow, in Kazan and Tyumen, in the Urals and Sakhalin.
According to Vilfand, in the 1970s, an accurate two-day weather forecast could be made. The weather forecast for the next three days was already considered long term.
The limit of an accurate forecast is two weeks. Science and technology will come to this in 30-40 years, the meteorologist is sure.
“The weather in detail can be predicted two weeks in advance. But this is the limit. In addition, there will still be average characteristics. By the way, according to the preliminary forecast, next February in Russia will be quite cold. It is predicted to be below of normal weather.
It will be colder than usual in the Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk regions, in parts of the Rostov region and the Krasnodar Territory, in the Kherson, Zaporozhye, Luhansk regions and the Donetsk people’s republics.
Cold February can be in Moscow, Nizhny Novgorod, Kazan, Astrakhan. The cold will persist in the Urals, the south of the Omsk region, the south of the Tyumen region, the Khabarovsk Territory, Sakhalin and Primorye.
In the central regions in February it is mostly minus 8-13 degrees, during the day – minus 2-7 degrees.