If during the coronavirus pandemic statisticians recorded a record loss of pensioners, in recent years the number of workers between 25 and 29 years old has decreased the most. And this is the most economically active group.
But in the North Caucasus Federal District the situation is different. Only here is the natural growth of the population maintained. According to Rosstat, in 2023 this figure in the North Caucasus amounted to more than 4.6 thousand people (the difference between birth and death rates. In Dagestan and Chechnya: 2.1 and 2.2 thousand, respectively). For comparison, a decrease is recorded in the Russian Federation as a whole – 56.9 thousand. Most notably in the Moscow and Rostov regions – minus 3.4 and 2.1 thousand people, respectively.
Aitech Ayubovich, why is the North Caucasus still the only large territory of the country where, despite everything, natural population growth continues?
Aitech Khagurov: Way of life and customs influence… Traditional family values in the North Caucasus are not an empty phrase. However, negative trends are already observed in this macroregion. I judge it based on my Adyghe ethnic group. Young people tend to move to cities and have a maximum of two children.
When I walk down the main street of my beloved town at night, it becomes eerie. Look, people lived in this house until recently, there is another empty one on the left, another on the right… And in the 80s life here was in full swing. Children’s voices could be heard everywhere.
In Dagestan for now everything is different. In Chechnya, as reported, four wives are generally allowed. Therefore, I think that these republics (perhaps also Kabardino-Balkaria) will have a “demographic advantage” for a long time.
Yes, there is natural population growth in these republics, but people are still leaving. Which is the reason?
Aitech Khagurov: It’s no secret that the economy there is not very developed. The structure is archaic. One in two people feeds on their own subsistence agriculture throughout their lives. A strong agricultural sector is underdeveloped. Moreover, this is a problem not only in the North Caucasus, but also in Transcaucasia.
The authorities talk about the need to develop labor resources, but in fact, salaries even in the Stavropol Territory lag behind the national average (12-20 thousand). what do in this situation?
Aitech Khagurov: Of course, with that salary no problem can be solved. In general, according to my data, there is a big difference between the real salary and the officially announced salary in the regions. The gap is almost double. There is a desire for the region to not appear worse than its neighbors.
To develop labor resources, it is necessary to increase investments in infrastructure projects: construction of roads, housing and communications.
But the main problem of our agroindustrial complex is, of course, the excessive concentration of production. Farming today is more of a burden than a joy. These large companies often have a strange and incomprehensible status. I could not obtain any necessary information about these giants from the statistical office. The production dynamics of the product are not provided. For private plots and farmers, on the other hand, everything is open.
Aitech Khagurov: “In the North Caucasus, ethnic culture with traditions of large families is being corroded by the cult of consumerism.” Photo: Vlidamir Anosov/RG
Much is currently being done at the federal, regional and local levels to correct the demographic situation. Is it possible to solve it in principle?
Aitech Khagurov: Only partially. The problem is very deep: the history of the ethnic group. Whatever the “indigenous culture” of the town is, that will be the demographic situation.
The sustainable development of territories is determined by the stable socioeconomic structure of the rural population, which means that much depends on the presence of a middle class in towns and villages. But villagers who consider themselves middle class mostly share the values of an urban rather than rural lifestyle. And those who do not share these values (farmers and other representatives of small businesses) constitute an absolute minority. Therefore, in rural areas there really is no middle class in the exact sense of the term. It is necessary to train it.
And how can we increase the sustainability of territorial development?
Aitech Khagurov: Several factors influence this. The main thing is that the processing and livestock industries function well in rural areas. They are the ones who provide employment, not crop production, where everything has been mechanized for a long time. Furthermore, the development of cooperation. That’s all in summary. According to the model developed, sustainability (and therefore employment and population growth) is affected by about 15 different indicators.
The main thing is that the processing and livestock industries function well in rural areas. They are the ones who provide employment, not crop production, where everything has been mechanized for a long time. Plus – development of cooperation
What trends can be observed now, if we talk about the social climate, where our society is going?
Aitech Khagurov: Slowly but steadily, the North Caucasus is becoming part of the consumer society. Every day, every hour, ethnic culture with the traditions of large families is corroded by new values: the cult of supermarkets and advertising. There is no way to escape this, like a collision with the “locomotive of history.” We are not even aware of this collision.
Just as television advertising disrupts the dramatic tension of an artistic and patriotic film, the consumer’s attitude toward everything kills spiritual culture. This highlights another pressing problem: how primitive and irresponsible our social technologies are. As much as the exact sciences are highly developed in our country, the social sciences are now lagging behind and degraded.
I think we will still have to abandon the basic elements of the consumer society. After all, to be honest, a person doesn’t need much to feel good. And now the process of purchasing goods has become a kind of addiction. And society cannot escape this useless cycle of things that increasingly acquires the characteristics of a financial pyramid.
