There are about three months left until the end of the 2022/23 season (the last days will be played at the end of May), so it is time to see the situation in various leagues in Europe. But we will do this with an eye on the fivethirtyeight supercomputer, which regularly monitors the situation in the championships and calculates the probability of a particular result for each team. What does it predict?
Premier League (England)
Champions: Arsenal (53%), Manchester City (44%)
Relegated: Everton (54%), Bournemouth (64%), Southampton (72%)
Arsenal, despite the defeat by Manchester City, still managed to hold out in first place. The “citizens” are often wrong, but the “Gunners” are still listed as favourites, albeit with a tiny margin. There is also a third candidate for the championship, but Manchester United has only 3% to perform a miracle.
The main intrigue in the basement is Everton’s position. The club is sensationally hanging in the background, and its chances are only 50%.
Champion: Bayern (78%)
Relegated: Stuttgart (23%), Hoffenheim (31%), Hertha (32%), Bochum (50%), Schalke (71%)
In the Bundesliga, Bayern and Borussia Dortmund are tied for first place in the standings, but the supercomputer does not believe at all that the ‘bumblebees’ will reach the final in a difficult title race. Munich remains the main favourite. The funny thing is that Union, who is only four points behind the leaders, is not evaluated by the supercomputer as a potential winner at all, only 1%.
Only three teams are relegated from the German tower, but algorithms identify five clubs that have more or less the same relegation chances. Only Schalke are different, although the club hasn’t lost in the last five games, giving little hope of a comeback.
Serie A (Italy)
Champion: Naples (99%)
Eliminated: Sampdoria (90%), Cremonese (93%)
In Italy, everything is as simple and clear as possible. The winner is 99% determined, which is not surprising, because Napoli leads by a giant margin of 18 points.
Three teams also fly out of Serie A, but the supercomputer has so far settled on only two teams with almost no hope. Cremonese are winless in 23 games, and Sampdoria have nine points to salvage 17th place, which is a lot for a team that has won just twice.
La Liga (Spain)
Champion: Barcelona (77%)
Eliminated: Elche (99%), Valladolid (45%)
Barcelona sensationally lost to Almeria in the last round (0:1), but this did not affect the title race in any way. The Creamy are seven points behind, and their chance of winning the title is estimated at just 23%. There are no more candidates.
And if you thought that the position of the “Cremonese” is hopeless, then the “Elche” is in a hurry to kill. The La Liga outsider, unlike his disgraced colleague from Italy, even picked up a win, but nothing fundamentally changed from this. Even 19 Getafe has 13 more points.
Ligue 1 (France)
Champion: PSG (96%)
Eliminated: Troyes (83%), Angers (99%)
Everything is stable in France. PSG grinds opponents to the right and left, and after 25 rounds it has a 96% chance of winning. The only rival is Marseille, who lost to the Parisians with a score of 0:3 in the last round.
The position of “Monaco” Alexander Golovin remains a mystery. His entry into the Champions League next season is estimated at 50%.
Below, too, are two obvious competitors. Angers is far behind, and Troyes, despite the high density (only three points from 15th to 19th place), is a clear outsider in this group. This is due to a terrible streak of 7 losses in the last 8 games (one draw).