“Krasnodar” is at the top and “Loko” almost at the bottom. The RPL table surprises by expected points
Nikita Paglazov September 29, 2023, 12:00 Moscow time Audio version: Your browser does not support the audio element.
“Spartak” and “Zenith” occupy the places according to advanced statistics.
Nine rounds have passed in the RPL, almost a third of the season. A group of leaders is already beginning to emerge, as well as a list of teams that will live at the bottom of the table. We decided to see if some clubs are deservedly in their place. And we study the xG statistics.
Detailed material on how it works.
In football, xG is constantly criticized. People just don’t seem to get the point.
For comparison, we took the teams’ actual points after nine rounds, as well as the xPTS (expected points) from the statistics website Understat. At a distance of two or three rounds, calculating xPTS is not entirely relevant, but after a third of the season, the numbers look more objective. Let’s look at the RPL table based on expected Understat points.
ClubxPTSPoints in RPLPlace in the RPL according to xPTSThe place in the RPL is real.“Krasnodar” 15.592111 “Ural” 15.031428 “Zenit” 14.951733 “Wings of the Soviets” 14.741842 “Rubin” 14.249512 “Spartak” 13.931664 “Akhmat” 12.7111710 “Sochi” 12.59681 Din 5″ master 12.071595 Rostov 11.8591011 CSKA 11.6413119 Orenburg 11.5081213 Pari NN 11.4614137 Lokomotiv 9.9715146 Fakel 7.9851516 Baltic 7.5971614
Conclusions:
“Krasnodar” – up! Vladimir Ivich’s team deservedly leads the RPL, Krylya Sovetov, Zenit and Spartak are also at the top without a bit of luck. An error of a couple of positions is not critical. “Rostov”, “Orenburg”, “Fakel” and “Baltika” played enough to occupy positions in the second half of the table. How unlucky Ural, Rubin, Ajmat and Sochi are. The clubs must be above their real positions. Particularly shocking is Rubin’s fifth place (really 12th) and Sochi’s eighth place ( 15th). Dynamo, CSKA, as well as Pari NN and Loko are “lucky”. The teams scored more points than they should. This is especially true for Nizhny Novgorod and Railway Workers, who occupy 13th and 14, respectively, according to the xPTS table.
Yes, you shouldn’t evaluate team performance based on xPTS alone. But this distance metric shows how much a team deserves to win in certain matches, reflecting in particular the strength of the clubs. What do you think of this RPL table?
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