Erik ten Hag was appointed Manchester United head coach in the summer of 2022, once again seen as another worthy successor to Alex Ferguson. However, the beginning of the season turned out to be completely gloomy: 1:2 against Brighton and 0:4 against Brentford. And yet the Dutch head coach managed to turn the situation in his favor. Now Manchester United shows top-class football, thanks to which it has the right to be called one of the best clubs in the world.
But just a good game is not enough to return to Olympus. Manchester United need trophies. The club can win the League Cup, the FA Cup and the Europa League, but everyone is waiting not for them, but for victory in the English Premier League. While everyone was talking about Arsenal and Manchester City’s title race, Manchester United quietly and imperceptibly approached them. United fans are jubilant, but if you approach the subject of the title with a cool head, it becomes clear that the club is not quite ready for the title yet. And there are several reasons for this.
1. Composition
Ten Hag sacked Cristiano Ronaldo, lost Christian Eriksen before the end of the season and instead signed the rather mediocre Wout Weghorst and Marcel Sabitzer, which is saying a lot. It is quite difficult to imagine a champion team in which Weghorst, recently exiled to Besiktas, is the main striker. Arsenal and City have almost two identical squads, which Manchester United cannot boast of. Too much is tied to the play of Marcus Rashford and Bruno Fernandes, without whom United is very different.
Manchester United has no margin of safety, and it is clearly inferior to the leaders in this component.
Photo source: IMAGO
2. Rational approach
Perhaps ten Hag really tries to force a fight in the Premier League, but does the club need him? It would be much more logical to focus on two national cups and the Europa League, because it is obvious that the team is not yet ripe to win the English championship. And be it the League Cup (the club has already reached the final), the FA Cup (in 1/8 Manchester United will face West Ham, who are busy rescuing the Premier League) and the Europa League, where, if Barcelona wins, before the Briton almost opens the finish line to clinch the title.
A limited squad will not be able to fight on four fronts at once. It is still too soon.
Photo source: IMAGO
3. Calendar
Manchester United had some big wins while Arsenal and City faltered, making it look like a third entrant in the title race. But she is ghostly.
In fact, Manchester United have recently played with teams from the bottom of the table, but there are still 14 games ahead, in which it will be much more difficult, including the following matches:
• Liverpool (out);
• Brighton (away);
• Newcastle (away);
• Chelsea (at home);
• Tottenham Hotspur (away);
• Fulham (home)
And I have not yet mentioned the games with the outsiders, who are especially angry and loaded at the end of the season. I can’t believe Manchester United lose fewer points than Arsenal and City.
My thesis is also confirmed by the FiveThirtyEight supercomputer, which estimates that Manchester United’s chances of winning the championship are only 4%.
