Since autumn 2022, Russian fighter Islam Makhachev reigns undisputed in the lightweight division. And each time the question arises, who will be the most worthy competitor of the champion? On paper, there doesn’t seem to be a fighter in the lightweight division that we can give a good chance to win against Makhachev. This is partly why Islam defended his belt in featherweight fights last year.
Now the UFC management is seriously looking for a suitable candidate for Makhachev to defend himself in a fight with a fighter from his division. For example, it has already been announced that at UFC 300 there will be a contender’s fight between Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan, and its winner will already face Islam. But is this really a fair option?
Islam Makhachev
Photo: Getty Images
Makhachev, for example, is determined to fight Justin Gaethje, and for him this is the most interesting option, and rematches do not attract him much. Russian fighter director Ali Abdel-Aziz says the same. Where does Gaethje stand now? In early 2023, he was coming off a loss to Charles Oliveira and was essentially forced into an unfavorable fight with rising prospect Rafael Fiziev. They quickly wrote Justin off, but he proved to be a completely different fighter: not a headless slasher, but a calm, calculating puncher. A jab and an uppercut gave him the victory, and after that the American said he would make one last run at the title.
In July, Gaethje feuded with another top player, Dustin Poirier. The BMF belt and championship contender status were at stake. Justin did everything right, knocked out the old offender and became the new challenger, but ahead of the queue was Charles Oliveira, who was scheduled for a rematch with Makhachev. The Brazilian flew out of the fight and is naturally believed to have lost his turn. Furthermore, he had already lost to Islam and that fight was as one-sided as possible. They don’t normally organize rematches after something like this, but the UFC had no options.
Now the fairest contender is Gaethje. Poirier is coming off a defeat, everything is clear with Oliveira and Tsarukyan still has no chance of winning the title. It is simply not serious to consider others. Another advantage of the fight between Makhachev and Gaethje is that we have not seen this fight yet, in theory there could be more intrigue here, at least because of Justin’s trump card: a hard blow. Khabib Nurmagomedov already met with him and compared Highlight’s power to a truck.
Khabib Nurmagomedov – Justin Gaethje
Photo: Getty Images
At the same time, of course, it’s hard to imagine Gaethje winning. It is possible to impose competition, but it is hard to believe that an American would win. Makhachev has an answer to Justin’s trump cards in the form of a fight, but this is a problem for Gaethje. Despite his experience in wrestling, he finds it difficult when people work with him in the field. In case of problems in posture, Islam will take advantage of it. So the Russians simply have more keys to victory.
Many people remember that, on paper, Justin should be good on the field. But in his case this does not work, because Gaethje himself said that he was literally tired of swearing. He distances himself from the fight as much as possible and feels uncomfortable when his opponents take advantage of it.
In addition, Islam has an underrated stance, generally believed to have problems in this aspect, but he actually knocked down Oliveira before strangling him, and Volkanovski already felt the Russian’s power in the first fight, having been in small fights. sudden falls. Gaethje, even though he started using the jab more frequently and doing more proficient work, is still a fighter who can get hit. Poirier called Justin the guy who doesn’t have a seat belt. In a fight with a very ruthless Makhachev, this could well be a disaster. Volkanovski noted that Islam has excellent combat vision and perfectly sees opportunities in the stands, plus he has a good sense of distance.
Islam Makhachev – Alex Volkanovski
Photo: Getty Images
Of course, in MMA everything can change with a single punch, but Islam has been knocked out before and has since been much more cautious and missed fewer major hits to the head in the lightweight division. Therefore, he can neutralize Gaethje’s strengths.
Makhachev is forced to remain inactive, although he is eager to fight:
Did they compensate for Makhachev’s injury? The UFC is wasting the talent of the Russian champion
Recent rumors that the tournament in Saudi Arabia, scheduled for March, was postponed until June, also speak in favor of a possible fight between Makhachev and Gaethje. According to Helwani, this was done because Saudi Arabian authorities, who paid $20 million for the tournament, were dissatisfied with the quality of the upcoming card. This will be easier in June. Plus, there’s a good chance this will be a numbered tournament.
Makhachev made it clear that on June 8 he was going to fight Gaethje. It is very possible that he already knew about the postponement of the tournament and confirmed his willingness to participate in it. The date also suits Gaethje, who has not appeared in the octagon since July. But Oliveira and Tsarukyan are unlikely to have time to prepare, with their fight taking place in mid-April.
As a result, we get the fairest fight between Makhachev and Gaethje, and then the Russian, if successful, will have a rematch with one of the Oliveira-Tsarukyan pairs. This seems logical.
