It’s 3:45 at the Minsk Arena and goalkeeper Andrei Tikhomirov goes to the bench, leaving room for an extra forward. A couple of minutes earlier, CSKA had scored the fourth goal and it seemed that this would guarantee the guests two points and a quiet victory. However, the “6 against 5” match gave new strength to Vadim Shipachev, who played his thousandth match in the league. He first hit the goal with a luxurious shot from a tight angle, and then fed the goal-scoring pass to Brady Lyle, who charged in from the blue.
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A few years ago it was unrealistic to imagine a KHL team starting play with six players almost four minutes before the siren sounded. But even with “-1”, the Minsk team was not afraid to take a timeout during CSKA’s icing (which seemed to give the opponent time to rest) and immediately went out to take a throw-in in the zone of the opponent with six of them, with two minutes left. Some would prefer to wait until the confrontation is won and only then release the sixth man.
But Kvartalnov is far from the most risk-taking coach in the league when it comes to playing with six players. Here it is unlikely that anyone will surpass Roman Rotenberg: it seems that the SKA boss is ready to always play with three lines and “6 against 5”. Perhaps this season no one will come close to SKA, which in the match against Kunlun with the score 1:4 replaced the goalkeeper 11 minutes before the siren sounded. At first it was with a delayed penalty, but then SKA played two full minutes in the 6 against 4 format. The fifth goal did not satisfy Rotenberg’s wish: already with the score 2:5, SKA again took out the goalkeeper and scored twice. This later gave the coach the reason to say at a press conference that the duel lost by 1:5 cost the team the game.
Roman Rotenberg calls a timeout
Photo: Vladimir Bezzubov, photo.khl.ru
However, here the KHL only adopts the trend that came to us from the NHL. At “-1”, teams usually eliminate goalkeepers two minutes before the siren sounds and two and a half minutes before, and are often willing to take risks even at “-3” (today, for example, it was “Nashville “). Research shows that the average time a goaltender is away in the NHL has increased in recent years, and 6-on-5 has become a critical tactical element that helps save games. Now the coaches are prepared to do it as soon as possible.
A little history: for the first time playing without a goalkeeper was invented by Art Ross, the man who gave its name to the award for the best scorer of the season, donating the cup to the league. In 1931, Ross coached Boston, which was losing to Montreal at the end of the playoffs, and then the coach took a risky step. Although Boston lost that game, other coaches around the league quickly adopted the innovation. 30 years later, another Bears boss, Milt Schmidt, for the first time in NHL history removed a goaltender during a delayed penalty against the opponent. However, for a long time it was rare for a goalkeeper to abandon his goal before the last two minutes or even the last minute.
These statistics were not measured in Russia, so let’s look at the data from the NHL: in the 2007/2008 season, at “-1”, six players started playing on average 50 seconds before the siren, this time at “-2 “; increased to one and a half minutes. In the shortened lockout season, these times increased to 1.00 and 1.40, respectively. However, in the fall of 2013, a coach appeared in the league who set a completely new trend. His name was Patricio Roy.
In the spring of 2014, Colorado lost to Minnesota in the first game of the playoff series 3:4, and Semyon Varlamov went to the bench three minutes before the end of the game: the Avalanche tied the score at the end and snatched the victory in extra time. In the fourth match, Rua eliminated the goalkeeper in 2.22, but then did not give any result; However, in the fifth game, Colorado defended itself in this way again and won. The Avalanches were eliminated in the first round, but they set the trend. The conflict with Rua, which almost ended in a fight between the coaches, did not prevent Bruce Boudreau, who was then working in Anaheim, from adopting this tactic. The Ducks pulled their goalie early, came back from a -2 deficit in the sixth game of the series with Dallas, and Boudreau publicly thanked Rua for the good idea.
Rua himself explained his risk this way: “You just feel when you should do it: if your opponents are on the ice for a long time, this is a good time. “I think about this more often than other coaches: if we have the initiative of the game, we are not afraid to play with six of us early, even if that can harm us.” Ryan O’Reilly, then playing for Colorado, explained: “When you have free time, you don’t need to force the game. If the opponent knocks the puck out of the zone, then panic usually begins in such situations. However, if there are still a couple of minutes left on the clock, then you can regroup and try to find a gap in the opponent’s defense.”
Patrick Roy in Colorado
Photo: Gene J. Puskar/AP/TASS
As a result, already in the next regular season, coaches began to dismiss goalkeepers much more often. Rua also played into this with his extravagant decisions: despite the excellent selection of forwards, the Avalanche created very few opportunities and often found themselves in a position to recover. That’s why St. Patrick began to be original: in 2015, it started playing with six players against Nashville 12 minutes before the siren sounded; a year later he took out the goalkeeper at “-4” against Chicago 10 minutes before the end; the game. Rua himself said that he did not always do it to win, but at least to show that his team never gives up.
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However, the most successful trainers quickly popularized this trend. The result is evident: now the goalkeeper with “-1” retires on average 1.50 before the siren, and with “-2” 2.40. However, this does not represent a great improvement in the team’s result. According to the Hockey Graphs website, in the 2013/2014 season, which became a turning point, teams scored in 13.5% of cases in games with six players; Then this figure even decreased for some time, but in the 2019/2020 championship it only increased to 14.5%. In addition, if earlier, when playing with six players, the teams often remained “at home” and the score did not change in any direction, recently the defending teams have begun to score into an empty goal much more often.
This can be seen even in the example of the last day of the NHL: out of nine games, the goalkeeper was eliminated in seven. Five times the leading team scored into an empty net, once nothing changed, once Colón scored in a game with six players, but the team was down “-2” and lost. However, for a coach whose team loses, it no longer makes a difference: losing 2-3 or 2-4. The example of Minnesota itself, which two seasons ago scored 19 goals in 6-on-5 situations, will inspire everyone for a long time, and here risk will prevail over statistics.
In 2018, a book by mathematics professor Aaron Brown and investment manager Clifford Asness was published: based on the data collected, they suggested that, from a mathematical point of view, the most profitable thing is to shoot the goalkeeper… six minutes before the goal. goal. siren! If the delay is “-2”, the authors generally recommend doing it 13 minutes before the end of regular time. So far this seems like a borderline crazy adventure, but who knows what next experimentalist will appear in the league after Rua. On the Islanders, St. Patrick continues his tricks in the sixth field, but in the context of a changed league, he no longer looks like a revolutionary.
