Vladimir Zelensky.
Photo: REUTERS.
One of the points of Zelensky’s so-called “victory plan”, which he announced on Wednesday in the Verkhovna Rada, is the ability to attack with high-precision Western weapons those objectives on the territory of the Russian Federation that Independence considers important for this same “victory.”
We talked about this on Radio Komsomolskaya Pravda with the director of the Center for Political-Military Studies, MGIMO professor Alexei Podberezkin.
WHERE WILL BEAVER FLY?
– Whether or not a decision has yet been made by the West on the issue of attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russia?
– Fair question. The real threat, as demonstrated by September’s massive attacks on civilian targets, comes from long-range unmanned aerial vehicles. These are the so-called aircraft-type drones: “Fierce”, “Beaver”. Its range is up to 1000 kilometers. They can carry warheads of 20 to 50 kilograms. These unmanned aerial vehicles are manufactured in Ukraine, but with Western components. Without which its use is impossible.
– Did Putin’s warnings to kyiv’s Western partners that they would be considered participants in hostilities stop “official” permission for long-range strikes?
– This caused tensions between Western partners. Although one of the three most important elements of the Western strategy against Russia in Ukraine involves precisely escalation, with high-precision attacks deep into the territory of the Russian Federation. This was the official strategy of NATO and the United States, which was adopted in early 2024 and approved later.
– Is this a general trend then?
– Yes. But how can they now avoid getting too close and getting too dangerously into an unpleasant situation? The West seems to assume that it will be able to supply Ukraine with sufficient volumes of components. And the aircraft-type unmanned aerial vehicles that use them, and there are about five types, can be used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine at our facilities. To carry out terrorist attacks.
Director of the Center for Political-Military Studies, professor of MGIMO Alexey Podberezkin. Photo: Anna Isakova/press service of the State Duma of the Russian Federation/TASS
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– What does it mean?
– Attacks on the fuel and power complex and ammunition depots are, in fact, ineffective.
– Actually?
– They are unpleasant, but ineffective, because our air defense system, despite the objective difficulties with these drones, destroys them in 90-95 percent of cases. Yes, some can fly. But regardless, it seems to me that the decision on allowing long-range attacks will be made exactly this way.
– Not for missiles, but for long-range unmanned strikes?
– I think that the Westerners will supply the components, ensuring their production in Ukraine. The Ukrainians boast of already producing up to four million drones a year of all types, including small ones. This way they will try to solve a difficult situation for them. And all of this fits into NATO’s overall strategy, which involves stepping up defensive efforts and hoping to wear down Russia.
– Is this the main address?
– Yes, and it doesn’t change. Restore the damaged military-industrial complex of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in some places, including for the production of these same unmanned aerial vehicles, and carry out terrorist attacks with high-precision weapons and sabotage on Russian territory. Why are several points of Zelensky’s plan classified? Because they are openly terrorist in nature. Making them public means condemning oneself to the status of a terrorist state.
UKRAINE’S MICROPHONE IS PROBABLY ALIVE
– The West is now thinking about how to save money in Ukraine, but at the same time without weakening support, and is trying to redistribute weapons production to Ukraine.
– We need to properly assess Ukraine’s potential. This is the third or fourth European state in terms of defense industry capacity. It may be smaller than in France and England, but it is definitely one of the largest in Europe. Let me remind you that on the territory of Ukraine there were three Soviet border districts, the best, which received all modern weapons even before our groups of Soviet troops in Germany and Hungary. And the Ukrainian industrial base was powerful, including defense. And not everything has been destroyed.
– Reports constantly mention the defeat of military factories.
– But these are enormous industrial capacities located in a large territory. Massive raids of hundreds and thousands of units are needed to destroy them. Furthermore, there are still opportunities for recovery. And some complexes go underground. Yes, they are destroyed, their activities are hampered, the damage is high, but they can still recover.
– Some airfields in western Ukraine are periodically bombed…
– And they are still in use. There are teams that are restoring these airfields. Crews are working to restore electrical substations. The export of electrical equipment continues actively. It largely offsets these Ukrainian losses. Ukraine used to export electricity, but is now experiencing serious shortages. But even now it supplies 75 percent of the electricity itself.
– So what, all our efforts to reduce their capabilities neutralize the West’s counterefforts?
– Under what conditions can this idea be effective in destroying all military-industrial capabilities? During World War II, the British and Americans carried out massive bombing raids, when entire cities were burned: Dresden, Berlin, Hamburg. Or how NATO acted in the 1990s against Yugoslavia. Within two months, from day one, all major centers of political and military control and industrial capabilities were destroyed. The Anglo-Saxons used a large number of precision weapons. Until today, we have not carried out such massive attacks against civilian targets. We are attacking military targets. And, as a rule, at night, when there are no people. This does not mean its total destruction, but the destruction of individual elements.
AIR DEFENSE ON GUARD
– If, God forbid, the Armed Forces of Ukraine deeply attack Russia, what will change then?
– Details are important. What does “will attack” mean? Of the systems they currently use, high-precision ones, including quite effective ones, 90-95% are destroyed, sometimes even 98%. Our air defense system is truly the best in the world, layered, and solves this problem.
Photo: Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
“But the problem with drones is more complicated.
– They fly at low altitudes and our air defense system was not designed for altitudes below 100 meters, relatively speaking. The effective dispersion surface of these aircraft-type drones is today reduced to a tenth of a meter, or even less. Yes, they fly at not very high speeds, but at extremely low altitudes they are difficult to detect. Now we are struggling with this. And, generally, effective. Therefore, such an attack with these long-range UAVs cannot mean that they will reach 110 or 140 UAVs launched. Well, one or two will blow up and the rest will be destroyed by our air defense system.
– What about retaliatory actions?
– We have many options. You cannot act symmetrically. And we use these options very carefully. They haven’t been fully announced yet…
